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GOLD Wave Analysis for October 23, 2012

2012-10-23 13:18:05 (читать в оригинале)

GOLD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis Gold was trading in an upward move like we expected, impulsive wave 1 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (1) (coloured green) is developing. Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement towards the 1,726.89 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at 1,728.60 level. Today Gold finished development of the 1 wave (coloured blue) at 1,729.42 level and price started pushing lower for corrective 2 wave (coloured blue). Gold is trading around 1,717.70 level at the moment and we expect to see price around 1,752.15 level when development of 3 wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1,752.15 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1,713.71 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1703.2 (S2) 1708.8 (S1) 1719.6 (PP) 1725.2 (R1) 1736.0 (R2) 1741.6 (R3) 1752.4
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1,721.37 with Stop Loss 1,713.71 and Take Profit at 1,752.15 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CHF: The Upside Prevails

2012-10-23 13:12:57 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/CHF is trading with risks skewed lower. The rate is undermined broadly by weaker demand for safe-haven USD amid decreased risk aversion.
Preference:
The pair is moving upside so preferable position is long. Buy above 0.9245 with first targets 0.9305 and 0.933.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 0.9305
R2 - 0.9337 (Oct. 16 high)
R3 - 0.9371 (Oct. 15 high) 
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 0.9245, look for further downside with 0.923 and 0.921 as targets.
Support Levels:
0.9234 (Friday's low)
0.9210 (Wednesday's low)
0.9191 (May 8 low)
Technical Comment:
The pair is on the upside and is approaching its resistance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY: Bullish Bias Above 79.65

2012-10-23 13:05:45 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting three-and-a-half month high of 79.96 on Monday. The rate is underpinned by weak JPY sentiment as expectations rise for further monetary easing from Bank of Japan at its Oct. 30 meeting after wider-than-expected Japan September trade deficit and BOJ's downgrade of its economic outlook for eight out of Japan's nine regions in October. USD/JPY is also supported by widening USD-JPY interest differentials; demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 2.58% to 16.62) as DJIA erased triple-digit losses to close up 0.02% overnight. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; and concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession; caution ahead of tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary announcement as traders wait to see if the Federal Reserve changes the guidance it gives markets about interest rates.
Preference:
Buy above 79.65 with first target 80.1 and if it exceeds further, than second target is 80.35.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.00-80.09 (psychological level-July 5 high)
R2 - 80.35
R3 - 80.63 (June 25 high)   
Alternative scenario:
If price crosses below the pivot point 79.65, look for further downside with 79.4 and 79.1 as targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.4
S2 - 79.14 (Friday's low)
S3 - 78.91 (Thursday's low)  
Technical Comment: 
Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. USD/JPY daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, while stochastics stays elevated at overbought; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and rising.

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 23, 2012

2012-10-23 12:59:46 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Todays Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 1.5928                   R1: 1.5987

S2: 1.5905                   R2: 1.6061

S3: 1.5872                   R3: 1.6127

 

Technical Overview:  

Resistance at 1.5987 continues to protect the upside. It is a bit worrying. The minor rise from 1.5905 has become very slow with a lot of overlaps. It is normal for a correction but not for a start of a new impulsive rally. Therefore, now we need a quick and powerful break above resistance at 1.5987 to gain trust again that blue wave iii has indeed started. However, if we see this clear break above 1.5987 a quick rally higher towards 1.6061 and likely also 1.6127 should be seen. However, there is risk that a break below 1.5934 and more importantly 1.5905, which will call for a more complex correction developing in blue wave ii will take place. It will take a break below 1.5788 to confirm that black wave ii is still ongoing and is turning into a more complex expanding flat correction.

 

Trading Recommendation:

You should be long EUR from 1.5725. Lift you stop to 1.5900 to protect most of your profit. If you are not long EUR already you should buy a clear break above 1.5987, say at 1.6000 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 23, 2012

2012-10-23 12:53:13 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 104.10                   R1: 104.71

S2: 103.78                   R2: 105.14

S3: 103.14                   R3: 105.55

 

Technical Overview: 

 

We saw the expected rally towards the ideal target at 104.71 yesterday. We did not quite reach the ideal target, but with a high at 104.59, just 12 small pips below our target, we think that the impulsive rally from 94.10 is over. That said, now we need to see some sufficient proofs that the rally is indeed over. The first good indication will be a break below 103.14, especially if this decline is a small five wave decline. Until the break below 103.14 we could observe one last move higher towards the ideal target, but we would not bet on the outcome.
As we said yesterday, the coming correction would be the largest both in price and in time since the 94.10 low. It means we should see a decline of at least 422 pips and it should take more than a month to develop. The first major correction target will be in the range 99.35 to 99.62. As we are looking for a wave two we expect this correction to be a simple zigzag correction. However, there is no guarantee, that it will be the right correction; we have just to see the way it unfolds.

 

 

Trading Recommendation:

You should take profit at 104.50 and reverse you position to a sold EUR position. Place stop at 105.50. If you are not short EUR already sell at 104.50 or a break below 103.78 (one order cancels the other) with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com