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EUR/USD Analytical Review, Forecast for October 22, 2012

2012-10-22 16:26:52 (читать в оригинале)

 

During Friday’s trading session the dollar rose against the euro, as many investors are concerned about Europe’s debt crisis. Disappointing U.S. companies’ data provoked the additional demand for save-heaven USD. During trading session the dollar increased by 44 points against the euro. Market volatility was 65 points.

 

Fundamental Review:

 

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, PPI rose 0.3% MoM during September and 0.7% YoY. Forecasts were expecting +0.3% and +1.6%, respectively.
The prices on energy increased by 0.4% in September MoM and 3.1% YoY. It is the main reason of PPI growth.
Core PPI rose 0.3% MoM and 1.1% YoY.
There was a decrease in the number of U.S. Existing Home Sales in September.
Existing Home Sales in the USA fell 1.7% MoM which is equal to 4.75 million annual rate. However, the sales rose 11% YoY, figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The data was in line with the forecast.

 

Technical Analysis:

 

The correctional down move of the pair for the second consecutive day could not break the upward price channel which was formed at the beginning of the previous week. The trade is in the upward price channel at the moment; the lower border is placed in the range 1.2890, the low of October 15 to 1.3012, Friday’s low. The upper border of the channel is near 1.3139, month’s high.
The level of 1.3013 has prevented a considerable fall in the price of pair. It is the first and the most important resistance on a buyers’ way. If it is broken, then a more powerful downward move may resume; the bears could test a more serious level of 1.2985. The descending move may continue to the level of 1.2961.
The 20-day moving average points out the resistance between buyers and sellers. It is placed under the 60-day moving average. If we consider the down move as a correctional one, then today or at least tomorrow EUR/USD has to climb higher 60-day moving average, otherwise sellers may increase pressure on the pair.
The area of 1.3079 is the first level of resistance, here the growth may continue to the bottom of 31 figure; there the bulls may reach 1.3128. A test of the boarder 1.3160 is the most important target in a medium-term up trend.
Though, Bollinger Bands are pointed down they depict the low volatility which will be appropriate for the bulls. The trading is in the higher pattern of the channel and the moving average, placed at 1.3033, is a dynamical support level.
MACD indicator has almost recovered in terms of sales and is near the zero level; it explains uncertainty on the market in terms of further actions.

 

 

Today’s key resistance and support levels:

Suppost levels: 1.3013, 1.2985, and 1.2961
Resistance levels: 1.3079, 1.3101, and 1.3128
Moving Average 60-day (yellow line) - 1.3070
Moving Average 20-day (green line) - 1.3033

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EurJpy Rally Probably Into Last Upswing Before A Meaningful Reversal/Pullback

2012-10-22 13:47:27 (читать в оригинале)

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

As it is depicted above, now it is recommended to move risk/stop-loss to 103.00/10 levels. We might have entered into last upswing left in the single currency pair around 104.50/70 levels before a meaningful reversal/pullback begins. Intermediary support is now at 103.00 level while 101.00 is strong support. Intermediary resistance is placed around 104.00 level at the same time. It is recommended to buy intra dips towards 103.50/60 considering the risk/reward ratio. Bullish for now.

Trading Recommendations:

Stay long for now, move stop-loss to 103.00/10 levels. Target 104.50.

 

Good Luck!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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Silver Bounces Off The 0.382 Fibonacci Support

2012-10-22 13:44:50 (читать в оригинале)

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

 

The following conclusions could be derived since the metal broke out of consolidations beyond 28.00 levels last month.
1. The overall trend remains intact. Bullish.
2. The metal is retracing at the moment, possibly in wave 4.
3. Prices bounced back from the 0.382 Fibonacci support level of the recent upswing.
4. In spite of being stopped out at 32.50 level last week, buy on dips.
5. 30.20 is immediate support and 33.10/30 are resistance at the moment.

 

Trading Recommendations:

Buy now around 32.20. Stop at 31.00. Target open (fresh highs).

 

Good Luck!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Wave Analysis for October 22, 2012

2012-10-22 13:41:37 (читать в оригинале)

GOLD Elliott Wave
Last Friday Gold was trading in a downward move like we expected; final (C) wave (coloured green) of the bigger wave (4) (coloured orange) is developing. During the European session we could observe descending movement from 1,742.66 towards the 1,730.72 level. Therefore, during the early New York session Gold continued trading in a strong bearish mood and price reached 1,712.98 level. We can consider this move as the end of the corrective wave (4) (coloured orange). At the moment this commodity is trading around 1,721.30 level and we are expecting to see price around 1,823 level in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1,823.39 (100% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1,713.71 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1681.5 (S2) 1698.7 (S1) 1710.2 (PP) 1727.4 (R1) 1738.9 (R2) 1756.1 (R3) 1767.6
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1,726.37 with Stop Loss 1,713.71 and Take Profit at 1,823.39 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 22, 2012

2012-10-22 13:38:46 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move; corrective wave C (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (4) (coloured green) is developing. During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 1.0381 towards the 1.0347 level. Therefore, during the New York session the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price reached a new daily low at 1.0317 level. Today this currency pair finished development of the (4) wave at 1.3001 level and we are expecting to see price around 1.0450 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0449 (100% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0293 level as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0280 (S2) 1.0304 (S1) 1.0320 (PP) 1.0344 (R1) 1.0368 (R2) 1.0384 (R3) 1.0408
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0330 with Stop Loss 1.0293 and Take Profit at 1.0449 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com