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Daily Trading Forecasts (October 19, 2012)

2012-10-19 16:35:52 (читать в оригинале)

EURUSD: From a high of 1.3138, the EURUSD pair has corrected lower by around 80 pips.  The bullish bias is still valid, because the price is still above the EMA 56 and the RSI 14 has not crossed the level 50 to the downside.

 

 

USDCHF: USDCHF found a bottom at 0.9215, and has been in a slow and steady rally since then. The trend fundamentally remains bearish; since the price is still below the EMA 56 and the RSI 14 is below the level 50, though pointing up.

 

GBPUSD: The Cable reached a high of 1.6179, before plunging. This happened by more than 130 pips – something that poses a threat to any bullish possibility, especially the recent bullish signal. A continuation of this correction may lead to a ‘sell’ signal.

 

USDJPY: The correction that is happening on this market is clearly understandable, since the price will not move in a straight line. The RSI 14 reached the overbought region, and is retracing downwards. The ‘buy’ signals remain valid.

 

EURJPY: Here the correction is not that significant as well, as the price is not expected to fall below the demand zone at 103.00. The Williams’ % Range period 20 reached an overbought region and would understandably retrace. I still prefer a long trade. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

2012-10-19 13:51:39 (читать в оригинале)

Overveiw:
USD/JPY is consolidating after hitting near-two-month high of 79.47 on Thursday. The rate is underpinned by weaker JPY sentiment on expectations that the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy at its Oct. 30 meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; better-than-expected improvement in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 5.7 this month from negative 1.9 in September (vs. 1.0 forecast); 0.6% rise in Conference Board's September index of leading economic indicators (vs. +0.2% forecast). But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk tolerance (S&P down 0.24%, Nasdaq -1.01% overnight) as investor sentiment dented by disappointing 3Q earnings report from Google and bigger-than-expected 46,000 jump in latest U.S. weekly jobless claims to 388,000 (vs. 365,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan exporter sales; concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession; and positions adjustment before weekend.
Preference:
As technical indicator are still showing the pair on uptrend, buying position is suitable at this time with Long positions above 79.05 with target  79.5 and in extension 79.7.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 79.47 (Thursday's high, just above 200-day moving average)
R2 - 79.66 (Aug. 20 reaction high)
R3 - 79.97-80.00   
Alternative scenario:
In case market moves downwards and breaks the pivot point, below 79.05 sell with target 78.95 and 78.8 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 78.91 (Thursday's low)
S2 - 78.8 *** intraday support
78.61 (Wednesday's low).
Technical Comment:
The pair stands above its intermediary support at 79.05 and remains within a bullish channel. USD/JPY daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and rising.  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-19 13:43:03 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium-term bearish channel at 1,730 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will reach the lower limit of its channel at 1,710.
Technical indicators provide buy signals and until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in the recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 1,730 with the 1st objective at 1,740 and then at 1,745. A breakthrough of 1,727 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we recommend a “sell stop” which means to sell gold as soon as it is broken through its support of 1,730 with the 1st objective at 1,720 and then at 1,717. A breakthrough of 1,733 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-19 13:41:09 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 104.40 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels initiates a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 104.40 with the 1st objective at 103.80 and then at 103.60. A breakthrough of 104.60 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we recommend a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 104.40 with the 1st objective at 105.00 and then at 105.20. A breakthrough of 104.20 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-19 13:39:07 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium-term bearish channel at 1.6020 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will reach the lower limit of its channel at 1.5920.
Technical indicators provide sell signals, but until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 1.6020 with the 1st objective at 1.6080 and then at 1.6100. A breakthrough of 1.6000 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.6020 with the 1st objective at 1.5960 and then at 1.5940. A breakthrough of 1.6040 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com