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EUR/USD Analytical Review. Forecast for October 19, 2012

2012-10-19 13:37:10 (читать в оригинале)

 

Amid US economic data proving a slight recovery, USD rose insignificantly against the common currency.
During yesterday’s trading session the dollar increased by 54 points against the euro. Market volatility was 72 points.

 

Fundamental Review:

 

According to the Labor Department, the number of jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended October 13. The economists forecast a rise in claims to 365,000.
According to Conference Board, the index of U. S. leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in September after a revised drop in August that was bigger initially reported 0.1% drop in September. Experts projected the gauge would climb 0.2% in August.
During yesterday’s trading session the single currency fell despite ongoing EU summit, as it is expected the agreement on the measures aimed at to tackle debt crisis is to be reached.

 

Technical Analysis:

 

The current correctional drop in price is due to some long positions were closed by the major buyers, sellers presence on the market is not observed. On the whole, trading continues in upward price channel, the lowest border is placed in the range 1.2890, the low of October 15 to 1.3055, yesterday’s low. The upper border of the channel is near 1.3139, yesterday’s high.
Bulls experienced a slight technical defeat; the support level 1.3079 was broken. Thus, the pair may continue its downward move towards the level of 1.3048. EUR/USD may reach more crucial point of 1.3013.
The 20-day moving average is making the situation more complex. It has crossed 60-day moving average in vertical direction which is near 1.3095 and is a dynamical resistance level.
If we talk about the resistance levels, we should say the situation is quite clear. The yesterday’s support level 1.3079 can show resistance. If it is broken, then the base of 31 figure will be observed. On the other hand, if it is broken too, 1.3128 will be the most remote target.
After two sessions, Bollinger Bands reversed and turned down, pointing out the building of a downtrend. The trading is in the lower pattern of the channel and the moving average, placed at 1.3082, is a dynamical resistance level.
MACD indicator is in the sale range. However, as it was depicted above, the presence of strong sellers on the market is not seen. Thus, it is not recommended to consider strong sales for the EUR/USD pair.

 

 

Today’s key resistance and support levels:

Support levels: 1.3048, 1.3013, and 1.2985
Resistance levels: 1.3079, 1.3101, and 1.3128
Moving Average 60-day (yellow line) – 1.3095
Moving Average 20-day (green line) - 1.3082

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-19 13:27:52 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1.3090 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels initiates a violent bullish channel.

Technical indicators provide buy signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1.3090 with the 1st objective at 1.3030 and then at 1.3010. A breakthrough of 1.3110 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.3090 with the 1st objective at 1.3140 and then at 1.3160. A breakthrough of 1.3070 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Wave Analysis for October 19, 2012

2012-10-19 11:59:16 (читать в оригинале)

GOLD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis gold was trading in a downward move like we expected, final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (C) (coloured green) is developing. During the yesterday’s Asian and European sessions we could observe strong descending movement from 1751.37 towards the 1737.38 level. Therefore, during the early New York session gold did not manage to hold this level and price retraced back to 1745.50 level. Today this commodity continued trading in a bearish mood and we are expecting to see price at 1713.34 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 4, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 4 with Take Profit at 1728.57 (100% of wave 4) and Take Profit 2 at 1713.34 (161.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1739.36 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Existing Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1722.3 (S2) 1730.6 (S1) 1736.7 (PP) 1745.0 (R1) 1751.1 (R2) 1759.4 (R3) 1765.5
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1733.70 with Stop Loss 1739.36, Take Profit at 1728.57, and Take Profit 2 at 1713.34 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 19, 2012

2012-10-19 11:56:44 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in aт upward move like we expected, corrective wave (2) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured orange) is developing. During the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 0.9763 towards the 0.9804 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at 0.9858 level. At the moment this major pair is trading around 0.9855 level and we are expecting to see price lower when development of the (3) wave (coloured green) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with Take Profit at 0.9745 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9674 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9879 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor CAD Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and U.S. Existing Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9730 (S2) 0.9766 (S1) 0.9789 (PP) 0.9825 (R1) 0.9861 (R2) 0.9884 (R3) 0.9920
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9845 with Stop Loss 0.9879, Take Profit 1 at 0.9745, and Take Profit 2 at 0.9674 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 19, 2012

2012-10-19 11:51:21 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 1.5923                    R1: 1.5981

S2: 1.5891                    R2: 1.6061

S3: 1.5831                    R3: 1.6127

 

Technical Overview:

 

The blue wave ii correction should be over soon and we should be looking for a break above 1.5987; it is the confirmation of it. Once resistance at 1.5987 is broken we should see the next rally higher towards 1.6127 and 1.6215. It is likely to be the most powerful part of it. However, in the long term we should look for much higher levels as we should expect this wave 3 higher from 1.5453 to extend, and therefore take us up to 1.6967. Of cause this rally will not be in a straight line. There seems to be some doubts as to we will observe reversals along the way, but we consider the roadmap is pretty much in place.
If we see a break below 1.5923 it does not alter the overall picture. Only a break below 1.5788 will do that. A break below 1.5788 will call for a more complex correction development.
 

Trading Recommendation: 

You should be long EUR from 1.5725 with a stop at 1.5860. If you are not long EUR already you should buy at 1.5925 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com