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USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

2012-10-17 14:20:16 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting four-week high of 78.97 on Tuesday. The rate is underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 0.33% to 15.22, S&P up 1.03% overnight) on stronger-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings; diminished worries over the euro-zone debt crisis on reports that Spain was considering applying for a precautionary credit line from the European Stability Mechanism which is likely to face less opposition from creditor nations versus a full bailout request, and Moody's this morning affirmed Spain's rating at Baa3; rise in U.S. home builders housing market index to six-year high of 41 in October from September's 40 (meeting forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession.
Preference:
As USD/JPY is rebounding and daily chart is positive biased. Buying is preferable. Recommended position is Long above 78.6 with targets at 78.95 and 79.23 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
78.97 (Tuesday's high)
79.23 (Sept. 19 high)
79.38 (200-day moving average)   
Alternative scenario:
In case if market moves in opposite direction, the recommended trade will be as follows sell below 78.6 and look for further downside with 78.45 and 78.25 as targets.
Support Levels:
78.45 *** intraday Support
78.28 (Monday's low-Friday's low)
77.94 (Thursday's low)  
Comment:
The pair is rebounding on its support as the RSI is turning up.The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish.  

 
 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 17, 2012

2012-10-17 14:08:57 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 1.5987                    R1: 1.6057

S2: 1.5965                    R2: 1.6154

S3: 1.5943                    R3: 1.6215

 

Technical Overview: 

 

There was no time for small set-backs yesterday. This is quite common behavior for third waves. Corrections tend to be subnormal and the underlying trend (which in this case is clearly up) just keeps going in an almost vertical line. It does not mean that we do not have any clues where support and resistance levels are. Even this strong third wave follows the rules and guidelines of R.N. Elliott. It gives us a clear idea of what is going to happen. We may conclude that there is a problem with the third wave. It is the following one, extensions in this wave tend to be larger than we saw and there are a lot of them. It is one of the reasons we want to be on the right side of the trade once this wave gets going. It is well under way now. It is also in third waves we normally see a break above the base channels resistance line, which right now is at 1.6257 and rising, so we would not expect less than a rise above this resistance line. If we do not have any clues that wave 1 was an extended wave, in this case we do not have any signs of it. Therefore we expect at least wave 3 to be of similar size, which should at least take us up to 1.6386. But we will look for an extended wave 3, and therefore a target of 1.6967 will be more likely. As wave 3 progresses we will be able to say more about the possible ending point for this ongoing wave 3.

 

Trading Recommendation:

You should be long EUR from 1.5725. Move your stop up to 1.5860. If you are not long EUR already you should buy EUR at 1.5990 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 17, 2012

2012-10-17 13:45:15 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 102.93                    R1: 103.63

S2: 102.56                    R2: 103.90

S3: 102.27                    R3: 104.71

 

Technical Overview:  

The triangle ended earlier as it was expected. However, there was an expected outcome. We have seen a clear break on the upside, a break that was confirmed with the break above the top of the triangle’s wave B at 102.80. Consequently, we know that wave 5 of the impulsive rally from July’s low at 94.10 is well under way. We should try to find the possible target for this wave 5. The first target is calculated by taking the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 and multiplying it by the Fibonacci number 38.2%, and adding it to the end of wave 4. It gives us a target of 104.71 as the first possible target for wave 5. We do the calculation over again, but this time with 50% and 61.8% (you can see the targets plotted on the chart in orange). The calculation with the 50% is not the most common target, but we have seen as it had been the target many times, so we include it in our calculations. Which of the targets is the most likely to end wave 5, is probably the question you would like to know the answer. We think that the most likely target is one of the 38.2% target at 104.71. It is close to the target where we will take profit on our long EUR position.

 

Trading Recommendation:

You should be long EUR from 102.85 with a stop at 101.75 and place your take profit at 104.50.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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Daily Trading Forecasts (October 17, 2012)

2012-10-17 13:25:13 (читать в оригинале)

 EURUSD: As concerns this bullish pair, any bearish correction could take the price to the support level of 1.3000. However, it is expected to be temporary. A continuation of the price towards the north would take it to the resistance level of 1.3100.

 

USDCHF: Bearish USDCHF continues to go down reaching the level of 0.9250 and going beyond. A bullish correction could take the price temporarily back to the resistance level of 0.9300. After it, the overall plunge should continue.

 

GBPUSD: As concerns the cable, a long trade would now make sense. It is possible that the price would reach the distribution zones at 1.6150 and 1.6200, though a retracement towards the accumulation zones at 1.6000 is also possible.

 

USDJPY: The price target for this instrument remains at 79.00. After it is broken, the price will struggle to reach the supply territory at 79.50. But one should pay attention to the demand zone at 78.50.

 

EURJPY: The bullish breakout on the EURJPY is now fast and furious. The supply zone at 103.00 has been besieged, it will be broken on the upside. There is a near-term demand zone at 102.50.

 

  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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SILVER Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for October 17, 2012

2012-10-17 12:45:04 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview
The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver continues its upward move after bouncing from Support level of 32.65. It manages to break the Resistance level of 33.00. Presently, silver is approaching the Resistance level of 33.30. If silver continues the upward movement and manages to close 4H above this Resistance level, it will provide a good opportunity to buy above the Resistance level as well as make it possible to reach the Resistance level of 33.65 as the level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Resistance level to continue the bullish move. In case silver is able to break the Resistance level of 33.65 and close 4H above, we will get a bullish strength which will provide new buy signals and enable the Resistance level of 34.20 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bullish move and takes a downward move after its rebound from the Resistance level of 33.30, it will be a strong indicator for the bearish move after closing 4H below Support level of 32.65 enabling Support level of 31.90. In this case we should wait for breaking this Support level to continue the bearish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level of 33.00 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected and invalidating the upward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3 (34.20)
R2 (33.65)
R1 (33.30)
S1 (32.65)
S2 (31.90)
S3 (31.90)

Trading Recommendations
According to the previous analysis, we recommend buying in case of closing 4H above the Resistance level of 33.30 with TP 33.75; SL closing 4H below the Resistance level might be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com