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USD/CHF: Technical Analysis

2012-10-16 12:47:56 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/CHF is trading with risks skewed lower. The rate is undermined by broadly weaker demand for safe-haven USD as risk sentiment improves.
Preference:
As technical indicators showing the downtrend, so it is recommended short positions below 0.9355 with targets at 0.9295 and 0.927 in extension.
Support Levels:
0.9291 (Oct. 8 low)
0.9270 (Oct. 5 low)
0.9235 (Sept. 14 reaction low) 
Alternative scenario:
In case the price crossed the pivot point then adjust your positions. Above 0.9355 look for further upside with 0.937 and 0.939 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
0.9371 (Monday's high)
0.939 **** intraday Resistance
0.9418 (Thursday's high)  
Comment:
As long as 0.9355 is resistance, decline to 0.9295 is likely. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but MACD is in bullish mode; five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.   

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 16, 2012

2012-10-16 12:36:23 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 1.5860                    R1: 1.5918

S2: 1.5838                    R2: 1.5967

S3: 1.5788                    R3: 1.6052

 

Technical Overview:

As we depicted above on Friday and yesterday, we saw to possible options for red wave i, which began at 1.5700. We could either have seen a series of wave one and two or it could be a Leading Diagonal. We think it is the best option to go with the Leading Diagonal option. However, the outcome in both cases would have been the same; a powerful rally in red wave iii of black wave iii. This wave is normally the strongest and most determent wave. It tends to be almost vertical as it develops. In the very short term we could see a minor decline towards the 1.5830 - 1.5850 area before the next rally higher towards 1.6062 starts. But in the long term we should see much higher levels.

 

Trading Recommendation:

You should be long EUR from 1.5725. Move your stop higher to 1.5760. If you are not long EUR already you should buy at 1.5855 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 16, 2012

2012-10-16 12:29:35 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 101.47                    R1: 102.29

S2: 100.97                    R2: 102.80

S3: 100.61                    R3: 103.63

 

Technical Overview: 

A slightly higher high was needed to finish wave D of the triangle. Now we should see the development of wave E to the downside. Wave E is notorious as it is difficult to predict its move. It can be very small and correct only 23.6% of wave D - on the contrary, it can correct almost 100% of wave D. Normally it tends to correct between 50 - 61.8% of wave D, which in this case would mean a correction towards the 100.97 - 101.22 area, here the next impulsive rally will take of. As there are no any hard and fast guidelines for wave E, it will be either a zigzag correction or even a triangle itself. We have to wait and see the way it develops. The only thing we can say with certainty is that once wave E is finished we will see the final impulsive move in direction of the underlying trend, which is up and should take us at least to 104.72.

 

Trading Recommendation: 

We will buy EUR at 101.30 or upon a break above 102.80.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

2012-10-16 12:06:59 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting six-day high of 78.86 on Monday. The rate is underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 5.39% to 15.27), Wall Street gained overnight (S&P up 0.81%) on stronger-than-expected 1.1% rise in U.S. September retail sales (vs. +0.7% forecast), Citigroup's latest earnings topping expectations, and weak Chinese inflation data fanning expectations of more monetary stimulus measures from Beijing. But risk sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected rise in New York Fed's Empire State's business conditions index to minus 6.16 in October from minus 10.41 in September (vs. minus 4.0 forecast). There is increasing anxiety about Spain's reluctance to request financial aid and prospect that Greece might not get another round of financial aid. The USD/JPY pair is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales and concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession.
Preference:
As Technical indicators shows the further upside of USD/JPY, preference should be LONG positions at 78.65 with 79 and 79.20 in sight as targets.
Resistance Levels:
79 *** intraday Resistance 
79.23 (Sept. 19 high)
79.37 (200-day moving average)   
Alternative scenario:
In case the market moves in opposite direction, the downside penetration of 78.6 will call for 78.45 and 78.25.
Support Levels:
78.45 *** intraday support 
78.28 (Friday's low)
77.94 (Thursday's low)   
Comment:
The pair has rebounded on its support and should post further advance. USD/JPY daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-16 11:39:52 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 102.30 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will initiate a bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 102.30 with the 1st objective at 101.70 and then at 101.50. A breakthrough of 102.50 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we recommend a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 102.30 with the 1st objective at 102.90 and then at 103.10. A breakthrough of 102.10 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com