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USD/CHF : Technical Analysis

2012-10-15 17:07:39 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/CHF is consolidating after hitting four-day low of 0.9302 on Friday. The rate is supported by profit-taking on CHF-longs. But USD/CHF upside is limited by broadly weaker demand for safe-haven USD amid improved risk sentiment.
Preference:
Short positions below 0.937 with targets at 0.9295 & 0.927 in extension.
Support levels:
0.9291 (Oct. 8 low)
0.9270 (Oct. 5 low)
0.9235 (Sept. 14 reaction low)  
Alternative scenario:
Above 0.937 look for further upside with 0.938 & 0.941 as targets. 
Resistance Levels:
0.9382 intraday Resistance
0.941 (Thursday's high)
0.9431-0.9438 band (Wednesday's high-Oct. 1 high)   
Comment:
The RSI is badly directed. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is in bearish mode, but MACD is bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 15, 2012

2012-10-15 13:49:07 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured blue). During the Friday's Asian and early European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0247 toward the 1.0289 level. Therefore, during the late European and New York sessions the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new low at 1.0216 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.0235 level and we are expecting to see price lower in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0004 (161.8 of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0293 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD Home Loans m/m, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m, U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, and FOMC Member Lacker Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0172 (S2) 1.0200 (S1) 1.0217 (PP) 1.0245 (R1) 1.0273 (R2) 1.0290 (R3) 1.0318
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0220 with Stop Loss 1.0293 and Take Profit at 1.0004 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 15, 2012

2012-10-15 13:42:33 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured orange) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured purple). During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement toward the 0.9767 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing higher reaching a new daily high at 0.9808 level. Today during the Asian session this major currency finished developing of the corrective (2) wave (coloured green) at 0.9810 level and price started pushing lower. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Extensions (0.9834-0.9762-0.9799), with Take Profit at 0.9695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9835 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks and CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey, and BOC Gov Carney Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9750 (S2) 0.9766 (S1) 0.9775 (PP) 0.9790 (R1) 0.9806 (R2) 0.9815 (R3) 0.9830
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9780 with Stop Loss 0.9835 and Take Profit at 0.9695 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY : Technical Analysis

2012-10-15 13:39:37 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is range trading. The rate is underpinned by yen-funded carry trades amid improved risk sentiment as worries over global economic health eased after China's trade surplus increased more than expected to $27.67 billion in September from $26.7 billion in August (vs $22.4 billion forecast), while exports rose 9.9% on year to record monthly level of $186.4 billion; surprise jump in University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 83.1 in October, highest level since September 2007, from 78.3 in September (vs. forecast for decline to 78.0). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan exporter sales; renewed worries over Europe's sovereign debt crisis after reports suggested Spain could delay seeking a bailout from the ESM until November; concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" - more than $600 billion in government spending cuts and tax increases that would kick in early next year - that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession. Yen crosses are vulnerable to 01:30 GMT China September CPI data.
Preference:
Long positions above 78.35 with targets at 78.75 and 78.88 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
78.76 (Oct. 8 high, near 100-day moving average)
78.88 (Oct. 5 high)
79.23 (Sept. 19 high)   
Alternative scenario:
Below 78.35 look for further downside with 78.25 and 78.1 as targets.
Support Levels: 
78.28 (Friday's low)
77.94 (Thursday's low)
77.79 (Oct. 1 low)  
Comment:
The RSI calls for a new upleg. USD/JPY daily is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode; though, inside-day-range pattern werecompleted on Friday.  

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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SILVER Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for October 15, 2012

2012-10-15 13:33:55 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview
The H4 chart shows today that silver takes a downward move after breaking the Support level of 33.50. Silver is testing the Support level of 33.20 currently. It is trying to break it through to continue its strongly downward move. If silver continues its bearish view and manages to break this Support level, it will provide a good opportunity to sell below the Support level as well as will make it possible to reach the Support level of 32.65 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Support level to continue the bearish move. In case silver is able to break the Support level of 33.30 and closes 4H below, we will get a bearish strength which will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level of 31.90 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bearish move and takes an upward direction after its rebound from the Support level of 33.20, this will be a strong indicator for the bullish move after closing 4H above the Support level enabling the Resistance level of 33.50 again. In this case, we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level of 33.20 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected and invalidating the downward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3 (34.90)
R2 (34.20)
R1 (33.50)
S1 (33.20)
S2 (32.65)
S3 (31.90)

Trading Recommendations
According to the previous analysis, we recommend selling in case of closing 4H below the Support level of 33.20 with TP 32.75 ; SL closing 4H above the Support level might be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com