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GbpChf Setup Still Remains Constructive For Bulls. 1.5 Remains Key

2012-10-05 13:26:40 (читать в оригинале)

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

As depicted above, prices are still holding the 0.786 Fibonacci support levels of the latest upswing from 1.5 to 1.5250. One more day and we should get further clarity whether a higher low has been formed on the Daily chart or not. 1.5 still remains of interest to the bulls and it should be considered as immediate intermediary support. Resistance is lines up through 1.5250 (intermediary), 1.5300, and 1.5400 levels. Looking closely, one may figure out that the angle provided at the backside of the inner trend line is moving higher with time. Till the time prices stay above 1.50 level, structure remains constructive for bulls.

Trade Recommendations:

Stay long for now. Stop just below 1.5. Target 1.5350 and 1.54.

 

Good Luck!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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Daily Trading Forecasts (October 5, 2012)

2012-10-05 13:21:53 (читать в оригинале)

EURUSD: The trend is up and the price still stays above the level at 1.3000. This pair has moved up by around 200 pips this week. The next target remains 1.3050.

 

 

USDCHF: The trend is down, as the pair has gone down by over 120 pips this week. The price is currently resting on the accumulation territory at 0.9300. If the price succeeds in breaking that barrier to the downside, the next target would be 0.9250.

 

GBPUSD: The Cable that traded lower from Monday changed direction on Thursday. It has recovered this week’s loss. The resistance level at 1.6292 is currently besieged, and it stands to be violated to the upside.

 

EURJPY: There is an uptrend on EUR/JPY. The market has moved up by more than 230 pips this week, and the current bearish correction might give an opportunity to enter the market at a better price, e.g. 101.00.

 

USDJPY:  This instrument is also in an uptrend. But right now, there are volatile bearish attempts in the market. Should bears prevail, the price may fall towards 78.00; and should bulls prevail the next target could be 78.50. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 05,2012

2012-10-05 13:02:41 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward move, developing corrective (4) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue). Yesterday, during the European session the AUD/USD pair was trading in a sideways move between 1.0182 and 1.0237 levels. Therefore, during the early New York session this currency pair broke resistance at 1.0235 level and price reached a new daily high at 1.0272 level. We can consider this move as the end of the (4) wave (coloured purple). The AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0245 level at the moment and we are expecting to see price around 1.0126 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0126 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0035 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0326 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0142 (S2) 1.0176 (S1) 1.0198 (PP) 1.0232 (R1) 1.0266 (R2) 1.0288 (R3) 1.0322
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss 1.0326 , Take Profit at 1.0126, and Take Profit 2 at 1.0035 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 05,2012

2012-10-05 12:59:29 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move, developing corrective wave (y) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (y) (coloured orange). Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 0.9876 toward the 0.9852 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bearish mood reaching a 0.9800 level and we can consider this move as the end of the impulsive wave (1) (coloured green). This major pair is trading around 0.9805 level at the moment and we are expecting to see price higher when developing of the corrective wave (2) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 should retrace 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (0.9883-0.9800), with Take Profit at 0.9852 (61.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9780 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor CAD Building Permits m/m, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9750 (S2) 0.9779 (S1) 0.9797 (PP) 0.9827 (R1) 0.9856 (R2) 0.9874 (R3) 0.9904
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9810 with Stop Loss 0.9790 and Take Profit at 0.9852 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBPUSD: Intraday Technical Analysis (Theory on Numerical Analysis); for October 5, 2012

2012-10-05 12:46:53 (читать в оригинале)

Use time frame of M15 to determine price range of yesterday, because it is more precise.

Tip: Some traders make a mistake.

The Fibonacci retracement is VALID only if the price moves on daily basis, it should be between the lowest and highest price of that day.

Thursday's historic (4^th of October 2012).

Open: 1.6078
High: 1.6203
Low: 1.6073
Close: 1.6192

Function = (High - (High - Low)) * 38%.

The market will indicate a Bullish opportunity on level of: (Low + (Function / 100)) = 1.6134 (-Spread).

Pivot Point (1) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = 1.6154.

If the price closes below pivot point on the H4 chart, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity on level of 1.6100 (+Spread).

Note: Support at 1.6109

Take Profit Formulas:

Sometimes it seems that the market does not follow our forecast, therefore in order to get out spank from the market before losing your profit you have to calculate the Market Movements.

Market Movements = (High / (High + Low)) * 100

• If Market Movements is between 50.20 and 50.40, so you should close your position after 1H:30M (Around 40 pips to 60 pips).
• If Market Movements is between 50.40 and 50.60, so you should close your position after 3H:15M (Around 80 pips to 120 pips).
• If Market Movements is between 50.60 and 50.99, so you should close your position after 8H:00M (Around 140 pips to 200 pips).

Apply Formulas:

Market Movements = (1.3530 / (1.3530 + 1.3320)) * 100

Market Movements = 50.20

Note:

It should be noted that there is relation between the Volatility and the Market Movements.

So, let's say you did not close your position after 1H:30M, so after each 15 minutes the Volatility will be decreased "Volatility - (Volatility * 40 / 100)" if you wait more than the trend can go against you at any moment. 

 

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.6114 and 1.6222.

• Below 1.6104 (23% of Fibonacci retracement levels) look for further upside with 1.6055 and 1.6003 targets.
• Buy at 1.6134 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels) with a first target of 1.6213, it might resume to 1.6255.

Technical Levels:

R3: 1.6369
R2: 1.6286
R1: 1.6239
PP: 1.6156
S1: 1.6109
S2: 1.6026
S3: 1.5979

Tools of Chart:

• It should be noted that the market was so stable and trend was also so clear (upward).
• Range was: 130 pips (downward).
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: (High + Low) / 2 = 1.6138. (The key level to confirm a bullish market).
• Volatility is 209.79, so the market has called for a high volatile.

Observation (s):

• Please, check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios became invalidated.
• Use historic prices to determine future prices.
• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing should take into account the period of time.
• Fibonacci in a range trader (it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period, sure you will lose your profit.

Warning (s):

• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• The market has a high volatile as usual, if the last day had a huge volatility.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com