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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 04,2012

2012-10-04 13:51:43 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement towards the 1.0200 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this currency pair did not manage to hold this level and price started trading in a sideways move in area between 1.0200 and 1.0235 level. Today during the Asian session AUD/USD reached 1.0182 level and we can consider this move as the end of the wave (3). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0115 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0023 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0300 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD Building Approvals m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, FOMC Meeting Minutes data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0156 (S2) 1.0183 (S1) 1.0200 (PP) 1.0227 (R1) 1.0254 (R2) 1.0271 (R3) 1.0298
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0260 with Stop Loss 1.0300, Take Profit at 1.0115, and Take Profit 2 at 1.0023 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

2012-10-04 13:41:04 (читать в оригинале)

Overview: 

USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting two-week high of 78.58 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is supported by positive USD sentiment after surprising rise in U.S. ISM non-manufacturing composite index to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August (vs. forecast of drop to 53.1). Meanwhile, Automatic Data Processing reported more than expected 162,000 jobs were added in September (vs. +153,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by buying of yen crosses amid improved risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 1.78% to 15.43; S&P rose up 0.36% overnight) as upbeat U.S. data overshadowed signs of slowing growth in China and weak economic data from Europe; demand from Japan importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY rises tempered by Japan exporter sales; caution ahead of today's ECB and BoE's interest rate decisions as well as tomorrow's U.S. non-farm payrolls data.

Preference: 
Long positions above 78.35 with targets at 78.85 and 79 in extension. 

Resistance Levels
78.81 (100-day moving average)
79 *** Intraday resistance
79.23-79.31 band (Sept. 19 high-200-day moving average)
79.66 (Aug. 20 reaction high).

Alternative scenario:
Below 78.35 look for further downside with 78.2 and 78 as targets.  

Support levels:
78.2 *** intraday support
77.97 (Tuesday's low)
77.79 (Monday's low)
77.43 (Friday's low).    

Comment:
USD/JPY daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average staging bullish crossover against 15-day MA. The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/NZD - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 4 - 2012

2012-10-04 13:22:38 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 1.5713                    R1: 1.5777

S2: 1.5668                    R2: 1.5850

S3: 1.5579                    R3: 1.5898

 

Technical Overview:  

Wave iii has already extended and has reached for 2 times the length of wave i. This is a very common extension target for a third wave, and therefore we could already have wave iii in place. If this is the case, we should see a more prolonged correction towards the 1.5570 - 1.5584 area. However, if a shallow correction to 1.5716, as we have seen until now, is all we get, then we should see wave iii continues its move towards 1.5898, before a more decent correction begins. We have to be patient in order to see what is in store for us. No matter the outcome will be, a break below 1.5558 will not be allowed.

 

Trading Recommendation: 

You should be long EUR from 1.5545. Lift your stop to 1.5555. If you are not long EUR already, you should buy at 1.5590 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 4 - 2012

2012-10-04 13:04:07 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 101.08                    R1: 102.10

S2: 100.69                    R2: 102.97

S3: 100.16                    R3: 103.85

 

Technical Overview:  

 

We have finally broken above resistance at 101.20 and the impulsive character is becoming clearer and begins to gather pace. The next minor target we should consider is around 102.10, which is likely to put up a decent fight and maybe even cause a correctional reverse move towards the 100.71 - 100.92 area. However, resistance at 102.10 should be quickly overcome as well, as wave 5 continues its rally higher towards its first target at 104.57 and probably even higher towards 105.69.
Once we have this fifth wave in place, the top of wave 1 of one larger degree should be marked, as we have been following since the indicator was at the level of 94.10.

 

 

Trading recommendation: 

You should be long EUR from 100.20 and lift your stop to 100.35. If you are not long EUR already, you should buy at 100.95 with the same stop.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-10-04 12:24:04 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 101.80 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals supporting the assumption of a decline in a short term. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility. Furthermore, the superior band evolves on the level of the spot rate supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 101.80 with the 1st objective at 101.20 and then at 101.00. A breakthrough of 102.00 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 101.80 with the 1st objective at 102.40 and then at 102.60. A breakthrough of 101.60 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com