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Fundamental Analysis For October 03 /2012

2012-10-03 20:17:18 (читать в оригинале)

 

The dollar has an uneven performance against other major currencies within minutes of the beginning of the American session on Wednesday.
The jobs data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) for September pushed the index of new jobs creation to 162,000 new jobs, more than expected by analysts, but less strong upward revision to August.
The figure favors the dollar against the euro which backs up the day so far at 1.2938, although the crossing is maintained in a relatively narrow range of prices in recent days.
Moreover, the PMI Services in the UK was revised downward for September which influenced the sterling. The currency broke the 1.61 support in the early European session. Once overcoming 1.6060, it could further accelerate the decline of the British currency, which comes in a strong downtrend in the near term. This movement, in its turn, generates an increase in the EUR/GBP pair, as the single currency has remained, as it was said earlier, more stable against the dollar in the last hours.
The yen keeps dropping, which is not surprising. Numerous warnings from Japan were made about early intervention in the exchange rate if the currency does not change its course by supply and demand. The target of 80 per dollar does not appear any longer, although it is acknowledged that the decline in the last hours is mainly due to a contraction of investors’ confidence because of the atmosphere of uncertainty in Europe. The BoJ's monetary policy is about to be presented, and we expect a sharp fall of the yen at that time.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar continues to fall after Australia's trade deficit exceeded the expectations of analysts. Australia is not going well in these months in the economic sphere. The interest rate was cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as it was expected.
We are expected monetary policy announcements from the ECB and BoE on Thursday. No changes await interest rate, which would be at 0.75% and 0.5%, historically low records for both entities. For now, the twists and turns of the Government of Spain in respect of the external debt; the market is full of doubt, they consider discussions as a waste of time while working indicators, construction and growth in Spain are deteriorating.
The ISM Service U.S. and oil inventories will be reported at 10:00 ET and 10:30 ET respectively. It may have impact on the major currencies.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook for October 03, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-10-03 19:49:02 (читать в оригинале)

 

The euro was trading for several days in a range of 160 pips approximately. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to expand its policy of quantitative easing. This could take the euro to the level of 1.33 and 1.35. However, if Europe does nothing by itself to get out of financial meltdown, we can see the euro again close to 1.25 and 1.20 levels.
Therefore, below the 1.2766 fractal daily we expect not only a break of quite strong support but also the beginning of quotes fall to 1.20.
Therefore, we still maintain our bullish outlook for this pair, as long as the pair trades above 1.2750. In case the pair reverses to 1.2766 level, we recommend buying at this level until the next targeted fractal level at 1.3004 and 1.3250 as ultimate goals.

 

If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Strong Support 1.0168 for October 03, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-10-03 19:35:30 (читать в оригинале)

The Australian dollar continued falling down after the RBA slashed its interest rates by 25 basis points. In a communiqué Governor Glenn Stevens said that the board considers that "on the back of international events, the growth outlook for next year could be weaker." Market sentiment remains weak in AUD until recent developments in the euro area and China are affecting this pair.

According to the graph, we see that the pair approaches to the last weekly support (W_S3) at 1.0168. This is a very strong support that was tested on September 5 which took the pair to the maximum of 1.0622. It is likely that the pair will rebound to 1.0390 from that level which is our goal in this bullish scenario.

 

If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

If you like my technical analysis, please vote for me, in the portal MT5.com, please login and then vote for me. Thanks.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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SILVER Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for October 3, 2012

2012-10-03 19:14:47 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Overview
The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver is still stabilizing between the Resistance level of 35.00 and the Support level 34.25. If silver takes an upward movement and manages to close 4H above this Resistance level, it will provide a good opportunity to buy above the Resistance level as well as make it possible to reach the Resistance level of 35.50 as the level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Resistance level to continue the bullish move. In case silver is able to break the Resistance level of 35.50 and close 4H above, we will get a bullish strength which will provide new buy signals and enable the Resistance level of 36.00 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bullish move and takes a downward move after its rebound from the Resistance level of 35.00, it will be a strong indicator for the bearish move after closing 4H below Support level 34.25 enabling Support level 33.90. In this case we should wait for breaking this Support level to continue the bearish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level 35.00 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected and invalidating the upward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels
R3(36.00)
R2(35.50)
R1(35.00)
S1(34.25)
S2(33.90)
S3(33.20)

Trading Recommendations
According to the previous analysis, we recommend buying in case of closing 4H above the Resistance level 35.00 with TP 35.50; SL closing 4H below the Resistance level might be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for October 3, 2012

2012-10-03 19:13:12 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview
Proceeding from today's H4 chart, the pair is still trading below the Resistance level of 126.50 and cannot break it through. If the pair takes an upward move and manages to break this Resistance level and closes 4H above, we will receive a strong indicator for more bullish signals which will enable the Resistance level of 126.85 as the level target. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the Resistance level of 127.75.
On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Resistance level of 126.50 and bounces from it, it may reverse the bullish move taking a downward move which will enable Support level of 126.00 again. Then we should wait for breaking this Support level in order to get new bearish signals. In case the pair is able to break the Support level and closes 4H below, we will get a bearish strength providing new sell signals which will enable the Support level of 125.30 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level 126.50 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected invalidating the bullish outlook. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support Levels
R3(127.75)
R2(126.85)
R1(126.50)
S1(126.00)
S2(125.30)
S3(124.90)

Trading Recommendations

According to the previous analysis, we recommend buying after breaking the Resistance level 126.50 and closing 4H above with TP 127.10; SL closing 4 hours below the Resistance level will be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com