Кино oнлайн Голосов: 1 Адрес блога: http://protelemag.ru/load/ Добавлен: 2011-09-28 02:02:58 блограйдером petol

NZD/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for October 1 - 5, 2012

2012-10-01 12:56:20 (читать в оригинале)

Weekly Technical Levels:

 

Tip (s):

 

•

• R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, although it is possible to pass them through.
• Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices will probably be located between the R1 and S1 lines.
• Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and is going to continue its movement.
• If the news released affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

 

Observation (s):

•  
• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: the NZD is an uptrend and the USD is a downtrend.
• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine an accurate psychology level of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.
• Fibonacci is in a range trader: it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period, sure you'll lose your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• As a rule, the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.


•  

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

---

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for October 1, 2012. Weekly Forecast

2012-10-01 12:56:05 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave Analysis:
During last week the EUR/USD pair continued to go up and on Friday we could regard this move as uncompleted 5 wave structure. Thus, this 5 wave formation may be wave a in composed in the terms of a longer downtrend correction with the targets at 1.2715. If it is so, after 28 figure is tested, the pair may start a rebound from the earlier reached high in the process of future wave и formation and the price may come back to 1.3000 or higher.
Targets for upward movement in the terms of wave 5 or b:
1.3065 – 11.4% Fibonacci
1.3148 or higher – 76.4% Fibonacci
Targets of down wave (probably 1 or a) or 4:
1.2821 – 38.2% Fibonacci
1.2714 – 50.0% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendation:
For the last week the euro rate kept its correctional wave which can be wave 4 and wave 1 of downtrend. Thus, the decrease may extend towards 1.2821 and 1.2714 which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% of Fibonacci. After the wave is finished, the pair may head up to 1.3065 and 1.3148 and higher which is equal to 11.4% and 76.4% Fibonacci in the terms of wave 5 of the upward channel or correctional wave b. The ascending channel indicates the upward trend. MACD did not form any divergences.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

---

It is the deep breath before the plunge in currency markets

2012-10-01 12:11:16 (читать в оригинале)

During the previous week corrections were observed in the number of markets. However, volatility was low which supports the opinion that it is a deep breath before the plunge in the major currency markets.

The COT reports published on 28st of September (contain data on 25^th of September) provide an updated information regarding the market participant behavior and hedger expectations in the USDX, Euro FX, British Pound, Swiss Franc and other markets.

If last week reports showed that hedgers expected the trend to reverse to an uptrend soon in the USDX market (it was indicated by the hedger COT index increase from 52% to 100%), this week hedgers did not change their mind and continued holding extremely high net positions: they increased them by around 10 thousand, from -5076 to 4207. Other COT indices support the uptrend signal. The open interest COT index is equal to 19%, William Commercial index (WILLCO) is equal to 0%, the large speculator COT index is equal to 0% and the small trader COT index is equal to 0%, as well (see Figure 1). Moreover, investment funds’ and general public’s net positions are also getting more extreme. Small traders and large speculators are holding record low net positions.

Figure 1: USDX futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Mar 2012 to Sep 2012.

In comparison to the previous week, on all major (and some minor) currency markets trader net positions got more extreme whichmoved the COT indices’ values to their edges.  On the EURO FX Futures and Options markets traders continue to expect the depreciation of the EURUSD exchange rate. Since 31^th of August, we have been observing all three COT indices in the critical areas of 0-20% and 80-100% and since 18^th of September the hedger COT index is equal to 0%. The Williams Commercial index dropped by 6 basis points from 6% to 0% in comparison to the previous week, supporting the fundamental signal provided by the hedger COT index.

The only indicator which is in conflict with the COT indices and WILLCO signals is the Open Interest COT index: it is equal to 0%. The open interest in the EURUSD market dropped from 373921 on 11^th of September to 271670 on 25^th of September. Despite it is a conflicting signal, we can ignore it because normally open interest drops in financial markets in September, December, March and June. It is associated with the fact that there is a soon expiration of the contract and market participants are forced to close their positions.

Figure 2: EURUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Mar 2012 to Sep 2012.

While we were observing a flat trend in the GBPUSD market, the fundamental COT signal have also strengthened. Hedgers strongly indicate a trend reversal towards the USD appreciation and downfall of the GBPUSD exchange rate. If, according to the previous Commitments of Traders reports, the hedger COT index was equal to 14%, last report shows that hedger net positions dropped from -35596 to -52335. Such a drop in hedgers’ net positions moved the hedger COT index deeper into the 0-20% critical area; currently, the hedger COT index is equal to 0%. The large speculator COT index also moved to the critical area, now it is equal to 100%(+23 basis points). The small trader COT index is equal to 100%, as well.

The only indicator which does not give any signal is the open interest COT index. However, the open interest has been constantly increasing in the past two weeks. Considering the fact that in the beginning of the month traders were forced to close their positions due to technical reasons, a future increase of the open interest in the British Pound market is a very likely scenario.

Figure 3: GBPUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Mar 2012 to Sep 2012.

The last currency market I would like to bring to your attention in details is the Swiss franc market. Here, the fundamental picture is very similar to the one discussed in the euro FX market. Currently, the hedger COT index is equal to 0% indicating this category of traders is expecting a downfall of the exchange rate. The supporting indicator WILLCO is also equal to 0%, its minimal value.

Large speculators are trying to push the market up and small traders tend to believe that speculators will manage to do that. Therefore, both trader groups have been increasing their net position since the middle of August: large speculators’ net positions increased from -18854 to -852 and small traders’ net positions increased from -10612 to +5295. As a result, the large speculator and small trader COT indices are equal to 100% two weeks in a row.

Again, the only indicator with an opposite (buy) signal is the open interest COT index which is equal to 0%. But as previously mentioned, the open interest drop is associated with technical specifics of futures and options markets, not market participant sentiment.

Figure 4: CHFUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Mar 2012 to Sep 2012.

To sum it up, market participants indicate that we should expect an appreciation of USD against other currencies. Such a pattern can be observed not only in the currency markets discussed above, but also in the minor currencies, for example the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and even the Mexican peso. All these markets can be analysed in detail using one of the websites offering the COT data or using the Commitments of Trader Legacy reports published on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission website cftc.gov.

The technical picture says it is a deep breath before the plunge.

After the downtrend started on 24^th of September, we observe a correction in the USDX market. The previously formed 4-hour supporting line at 79.70 was substituted by the daily support line at 80.00 (see Figure 5). A breakthrough of a daily resistance is a strong confirmation of an uptrend start predicted by the COT data. A suspicion for a deep breath before the plunge in the market is a volatility drop indicated both by the Average True Range (ATR, blue line below, see Figure 5) and the Standard Deviation (green line below, see Figure 5). In addition, USDX value was very stable in the end of the week which is indicated by the red circle in Figure 5.

Figure 5: USDX, daily candlesticks. History: from Nov 2011 to Sep 2012.

Another red circle can be found in Figure 6, where the EURUSD exchange rate was also stable during the last 3 days. Yet, there is no daily supporting line but another 4 hour line at 1.2828. Regarding the potential drop, the forecast has not changed since the previous report: exchange rate can fall to the monthly supporting line at 1.2050.

Figure 6: EURUSD, daily candlesticks. History: from Nov 2011 to Sep 2012.

The volatility slightly increased in the GBPUSD market (see red circle in Figure 7) and the daily supporting line at 1.62 was tested several times. The exchange rate has been varying between the monthly resistance at 1.63 and a daily support at 1.62 since 14^th of September. Again, the forecast has not changed since the previous report:

“Since September 2011 the exchange rate have been limited by the 2 monthly levels: support at 1.52 and resistance at 1.63, therefore it can drop till 1.54 where a weekly support is situated or even drop lower to 1.52-1.53. Further fall is less probable and will be considered when new information is available.”

Figure 7: GBPUSD, daily candlesticks. History: from Nov 2011 to Sep 2012.

The USDCHF market technical picture can be described similarly to the one in the USDX market: a 4-hour resistance line was substituted by the daily resistance at 0.9415. The exchange rate was also quite stable in the last three days. The 10 day Average True Range reached its lowest values in past 12 months.

Figure 8: USDCHF, daily candlesticks. History: from Nov 2011 to Sep 2012.

Summarizing, the births of new trends are coming closer, it is a deep breath before the plunge in the currency markets. From a technical analysis perspective, yet there is no confirmation of the uptrend in the USDX and USDCHF markets and downtrends in the EURUSD and GBPUSD exchange rates.

Information about the analytical review and forecasts

The fundamental analysis is based on the Commitments of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the cross-market connections. The technical analysis is based on support and resistance levels.

More information regarding the COT data can be requested from the author of this review or found at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s website www.cftc.gov.

The COT Indices used in this review are calculated using 26 week historical data.

Open or close your position only after a careful consideration. The additional analysis is needed to identify the points for the entrance into and exit from the markets bearing in mind your own money management strategy. Author is providing the key information regarding the markets and presents his opinion about the markets taking into account his uniquely specified trading strategy.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

---

IBM Stock Analysis on Point and Figure Chart

2012-10-01 11:56:11 (читать в оригинале)

 

IBM stocks hit 204.0 level and resumed upward movements towards the main trend line.
Resistance level of 209.6 is the main target for bulls.
Overcoming of resistance 207.6 will be a buy signal.
Relative strength index is in X column which demonstrates bulls’ strength.
Axel’s Levels for Today:
Daily pivot point: 207.03.
If the price is above the pivot point, the asset is bullish.
If the price is below the pivot point, the asset is bearish.
Resistance 1: 208.63
Resistance 2: 209.9
Support 1: 205.76
Support 2: 204.16
We recommend buying IBM stocks today after resistance level of 208.63 is broken.

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

---

GBP/USD. Forecast for October 1, 2012

2012-10-01 11:41:41 (читать в оригинале)

 

Last Friday the pound went down following the market’s fall amid the results of Spanish stress tests which elicited the required liquidity of 60 bn euro and weak September CPI Chicago managers (49.7 against 53.0) and CSI Michigan (78.3 against 79.2).
On Saturday, September 29, Chinese PMI grew 47.9 against 47.8 in August.
Today at 12:30 (GMT +3) we are waiting for British manufacturing PMI for September with the expected reading of 49.9 in contrast to 49.5 in August. Net consumer credit for August is forecasted to reach -0.2 bn in July. The US data is also expected to be positive.
At 20:30 (GMT +3) Ben Bernanke will hold his speech. He will probably announce about QE3 extension.
The reverse is possible together with gap close and following growth. Targets: 1.6165, 1.6233.

 

  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com