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EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for September 17 - 2012

2012-09-17 11:48:57 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 102.19                    R1: 103.02

S2: 101.67                    R2: 103.46

S3: 101.25                    R3: 103.77

 

Technical Overview: 

Friday delivered a significant rally as red wave 5 extended higher. We have also seen a break above the base channel resistance line, which confirms our theory of an extension in red wave 5 and black wave 3. What can we expect from blue wave iv once we have a top in blue wave iii near 103.43? We should look for a shallow correction towards 102.59 and maybe down to 101.92. This blue wave iv correction,which will likely be a small triangle, but it could also be a simple zig-zag correction as these two possibilities will be the alternate corrections, to the expanded flat correction we saw in blue wave ii. 

Once blue wave iv is in place, we should look for the final rally in blue wave v towards 104.01 and maybe even 104.95 before red wave 5 and black wave 3 is done.

 

Trading Recommendation:

We should still look for buying opportunities. Therefore, we will buy EUR against JPY at 102.59 with a stop at 101.14 and take profit at 103.90.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels for September 17, 2012

2012-09-17 11:47:09 (читать в оригинале)

Today's Technical Levels:

Resistance 3: 78.67.

Resistance 2: 78.51.

Resistance 1: 78.36.

Support 1: 78.17.

Support 2: 78.02.

Support 3: 77.86.

 

Description:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (77.86) and resistance 3 (78.67). In general, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign of that these currencies have found trends today.

 

 

Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForex Companies Group
InstaForex Companies Group
http://instaforex.com
Email : Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for September 17, 2012

2012-09-17 11:45:54 (читать в оригинале)

Today's Technical Levels:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3175.

Strong Resistance: 1.3167.

Original Resistance: 1.3156.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3143.

Target Inner Area: 1.3111.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3080.

Original Support: 1.3068.

Strong Support: 1.3056.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3048.

 

Description:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3068 and 1.3156 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.3056 and by 1.3167 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.3048 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above 1.3175 level, this will denote a high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3080 and SELL position at 1.3143. In this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.3111.

 

 

Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForex Companies Group
InstaForex Companies Group
http://instaforex.com
Email : Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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QE3 impact on the USD value and trends in major currency pairs

2012-09-17 11:44:01 (читать в оригинале)

The last Commitment of Traders (COT) data published on 14th of September 2012 includes market participant reaction onto Ben Bernanke’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Ben Bernanke’s QE3 start announcement almost outranks the Commitments of Traders data; thus, it is integrated in the fundamental analysis of this article. Find out what to expect tomorrow from the currency markets!

Ben Bernanke starts a QE3

As long as, the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 still presents in the world economy and consequent crises affected the United States, the US economy is experiencing problems. I would like to repeat the part of Bernanke’s speech where he states that Fed is ready to act if it is required:

"Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability."

The USDX hedgers have already expected USD depreciation prior to Bernanke’s speech. On 24th of July the COT indicators had already been in their critical zones for two weeks and that day the fundamental signal reached its peak. (The peak is marked with a red circle in Figure 1 and with a red vertical line in other figures). Later we observed a stable downfall in the USD dollar index (USDX) value which affected major exchange rates. However, even if hedgers saw that USD is overpriced, they probably did not expect as strong decisions of the Fed chairman as he made. Otherwise, we would see hedgers holding considerably more short positions and a zero value of the hedger COT index. Currently, there is no indication of the USDX undervaluation from hedgers’ point of view.

 

Figure 1: USDX futures and options, weekly candlesticks and the COT indicators. History: from Sep 2011 to Sep 2012.

Probably the current trend we observe in the market (Figure 2) will continue further because a new money inflow from the Fed and cut in interest rates will decrease the attractiveness of USD in the nearest future. There is a possible correction in the beginning of the next week because the USDX reached the weekly supporting line at 78.60 and the next is the monthly supporting line at 78.00. A confirmation of the downtrend continuation will be a breach of these supporting lines.

 

Figure 2: USDX futures, daily candlesticks and the ATR. History: from Nov 2011 to Sep 2012. 

On 28^th of September EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD traders reported their long and short positions moving the COT indices in critical areas of 0-20% and 0-80%. COT indices indicate we should expect USD to become stronger in the nearest future. From then onward the COT indicators stayed in their critical zones. The same picture we observed earlier within AUD/USD and USD/JPY markets where currently rates returned to their beginning of August 2012 values. Currently, in the EUR Futures and Options markets, the Index COT: hedgers based on the hedger net positions is equal to 8% meaning hedgers expect a depreciation of EUR against USD. Other traders, large speculators and small traders, also give us signals to expect a downtrend in the market. The large speculator and small trader COT indices are equal to 88% and 100%, respectively.

 

Figure 3: EURUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Sep 2011 to Sep 2012.

In other four major currency markets: USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD traders are also indicating a trend reversal. The market insiders, hedgers, have accumulated extreme net positions moving the hedger COT indices values into the critical areas of 0-20%.  Their signal is supported by extremely high values of the large speculator and small trader indices. Moreover a high level of open interest indicated by the Open Interest COT indices values in zones of 80-100% indicates an overheating situation in the markets. (Reminder: all COT data is collected from futures and options markets where USD is a base currency).

 

Figure 4: CHFUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012.

 

Figure 5: CADUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012.

The fact that all but one major currency pairs’ traders indicate the same trends means these trends are not going to be driven by currency specific factors. These trends are associated with each other and are driven by one major factor – USD value.

The only market, where market participants to do not indicate a trend reversal is the GBP/USD market. Yet the futures and options hedgers have not accumulated very low net positions, and large speculators have not accumulated very high ones. However, the Open Interest COT index is equal to 82%, market is overheating and almost all small traders play the uptrend: the small trader COT index jumped from 59% to 89% just in one week! If you observe the Figure 6, you can find that all indicators are moving towards critical areas. I believe it is a soon we will receive fundamental COT signals from all major exchange rates traders.

 

Figure 6: GBPUSD futures and options, the COT indicators. History: from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012.

It is important to understand that the COT data indicates undervalued USD relatively to the major currencies mentioned above. However, yet there is no sign of trend change in the USDX market itself. In addition, the fact that USD might be short-term undervalued relatively to other currencies does not mean it can’t fall even lower. Finally, Ben’s actions following his speech in Wyoming may have the strongest impact on the trends we will observe in the currency markets.

If the USDX will continue dropping, we will observe continuation of current uptrend in the EURUSD market. Currently, the exchange rate stopped in front of the weekly resistance at 1.3275. The growth without a correction is limited which is a good sign if you want to catch the possible uptrend continuation and enter the market with adequate risks.

 

Figure 7: EURUSD, daily candlesticks. History: from Nov 2011 to Aug 2012.

Summarizing, although there are signs of USD undervaluation relatively to major currencies, the question is if we observe a correction of the USDX, EUR/USD and other foreign exchange rates and a continuation of the downtrend in the USDX market or an uptrend. A confirmation of current trends’ continuation is a breach of supporting lines and resistance levels.

Information about the analytical review and forecasts

The fundamental analysis is based on the Commitments of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the cross-market connections. The technical analysis is based on support and resistance levels.

More information regarding the COT data can be requested from the author of this review or found at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s website www.cftc.gov.

The COT Indices used in this review are calculated using 26 week historical data.

Open or close your position only after a careful consideration. The additional analysis is needed to identify the points for the entrance into and exit from the markets bearing in mind your own money management strategy. Author is providing the key information regarding the markets and presents his opinion about the markets taking into account his uniquely specified trading strategy. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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NZD/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for September 17 - 21, 2012

2012-09-17 11:36:25 (читать в оригинале)

Weekly Technical Levels:

 

Tip (s):

 

• R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, although it is possible to pass them through. 

• Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as prices will probably be located between the R1 and S1 lines.

• Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and is going to continue its movement.

• If the news released affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: NZD is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine an accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to this kind of period.
• Fibonacci is in a range trader: it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you'll go sure for losing your profit.
• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
• Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com