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Will the ECB refuse to buy bonds?

2012-09-14 12:11:14 (читать в оригинале)

 

The European Central Bank will not probably have to buy sovereign bonds in the light of the Bank’s main mission to do whatever to save the euro.
Many leading experts suggest that nobody will speculate against unlimited ECB power. It stabilizes the countries’ currencies and investors know it. Nobody will be against the Fed as well.
The fact that Spain and Italy reduced the financing of their public debts is very encouraging. This has happened after the ECB president Mario Draghi welcomed the purchase of sovereign bonds. It is the ECB who has such opportunity and no one else.
The Bank will not have to take out as much money as it has to inject into financial system of the region with the help of bond purchases as inflation risks in the Eurozone are low.
The only question is left is if the ECB is going to cut the interest rate. However, we do not expect such scenario in short-term as inflation risks are high and the following rate cut will not be efficient.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for September 14, 2012

2012-09-14 11:49:17 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave Analysis

After the decision about QE3 was taken yesterday, the EUR/USD pair climbed 130 points and fixed near 1.3000 level. Thus, its morning wave structure of the upward trend and its 5 wave demonstrated a more complex shape which enabled growth to 33 figure. At the same time, the rule of “selling according to the facts” may contribute to this scenario and initiate a correctional movement as the market has already taken into account the mentioned above FOMC decision.
Targets for Down Wave (probably 1 or a):
1.2876 – 423.6% Fibonacci
1.2758 – 323.6% Fibonacci
Targets for Wave 5 in 5:
1.2993 and higher – 523.6% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
The most probable scenario is prolongation of the upward trend. Wave 5 of the rising channel continues its building and we expect growth to 1.2993 and higher in the terms of this wave which coincides with Fibonacci 523.6%. After wave 5 in 5 is finished, the pair may start a new downward channel with the primary targets at 1.2758 and 1.2685 which is equal to Fibonacci 323.6% and 261.8%. But this trend is strong enough and it is hard to say when the ascending move begins. MACD divergence is indicative of the beginning of the first down wave structure but taking into account such strong trend, we cannot predict the rebound.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD. Forecast for September 14, 2012

2012-09-14 11:35:45 (читать в оригинале)

The British pound grew 48 points after the Fed announced yesterday about QE3: the bonds will be purchased for 40 bn dollars monthly. But taking into account this news, the acceleration is not so significant which may indicate a rebound after fixation. Moreover, we are waiting for weak data from the USA on utilization of capacity and consumer confidence.

Technically, the price hit trend support line which is placed at April 28, 2011 and August 19, 2011 highs (thick red line). If the rate holds above it, it will enable a bullish target of 1.6230 and continue short-term growth tendency. Locally, on 4H time frime it is possible to wait for correction towards 1.6127 and 1.6066.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-09-14 11:28:06 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate broke yesterday the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 100.90 leading to an acceleration. A pull back to these levels is expected before reaching the upper limit of its channel at 101.50.

Technical indicators provide buy signals but approach overbuy zone supporting the assumption of a pull back in a short-term. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the spot rate broke the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement.

As the spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy at the level of 100.90 with the 1st objective at 101.50 and then at 101.70. A breakthrough of 100.70 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means selling the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 100.90 with the 1st objective at 100.20 and then at 100.00. A breakthrough of 101.10 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-09-14 11:26:26 (читать в оригинале)

 

Gold is testing the upper limit of its long term trading range at 1,778 for the third time suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will release good potential and initiate a bullish channel.

Technical indicators provide buy signals but approach overbuy zone and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short-term.

As gold is currently testing the upper limit of its trading range, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell at the level of 1,778 with the 1st objective at 1,768 and then at 1,765. A breakthrough of 1,781 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advice a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,778 with the 1st objective at 1,788 and then at 1,792. A breakthrough of 1,775 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com