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-Today the Fed announcement- Fundamental Analysis, for September 13, 2012

2012-09-13 17:55:45 (читать в оригинале)

 

This day was highly awaited by the markets, especially by New York stock market.
The Fed will announce its next steps at noon which will give stimulus to the U.S. economy, which in recent months demonstrated weakness of its key indicators such as employment growth.
In August employment figures were very low, with virtually zero inflation, and with the assurance that they will not move interest rates until 2014 and not until 2015, we expect that the Fed will announce a new bond purchase plan, called QE3. Will it be the solution? Probably not, but it will help to generate more movement in the economy.
Bernanke was very skeptical and pessimistic about the current situation as he saw that the $ 2.3 trillion that was used in two previous plans has not done much. For instance, the unemployment rate remains above 8%.
The fact that inflation does not grow despite mountains of money injected into the economy, demonstrates the magnitude of the crisis which started four years ago with the fall of Lehman Brothers. The U.S. economy had, however, entered recession in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Apart from the long-term consequences of present actions scheduled for today by the Fed, it calls attention to the prevailing climate of euphoria in the American stock exchanges. The Dow Jones is breaking records since December 2007 with a closing at 13,333 points Wednesday, although, it is just 9 points higher than Tuesday's close.
European currencies go down in these circumstances with a rare blend of optimism for the anticipated European Stability Mechanism, adopted on Tuesday in Germany, but they are also playing multi-month highs.
Naturally, with an announcement expected in the next few hours, the movements of the dollar pairs are measured and limited. But undoubtedly, the dollar will be shaken by the news of Bernanke and his people.
Is it so sure that the dollar will fall today? Actually, no. The leading currency is much oversold against the euro and the sterling, The Swiss franc and the yen only look slightly firmer against the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
We have an impression that it will continue its downward path, but with a previous correction. Before QE3 starts, what would be the reason for this correction? Perhaps, Bernanke will announce something that will not completely satisfy the markets. The answer will be given at 12:30 ET.

 

 

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Daily Trading Forecasts (September 13, 2012)

2012-09-13 15:44:41 (читать в оригинале)

EURUSD: The price is presently above the support level at 1.2900. The next resistance level is 1.2950, and if this is broken, the price would target 1.3000.

 

USDCHF: In this market, further bearish move was rejected at the accumulation territory situated at 0.9350. The price is trying to rally temporarily to the resistance level at 0.9400, but this could be what it is called - temporary.

 

GBPUSD:  The price on this market has already been caught in an equilibrium zone as the cable tests the support level at 1.6100. If the support level proves valid, the price would test the resistance level at 1.6150.

 

EURJPY: The resistance level at 100.50 has been futilely tested by the price, as the Williams’ % Range is heading down from the oversold region. The psychological support level at 100.00 would allow the bulls to enter long at that level.

 

USDJPY: This is a bear market: the price is now threatening to go below 77.50. If this bearish propensity continues, the next target would be a demand zone at 77.00.

  

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for September 12, 2012

2012-09-13 15:42:50 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday, the AUD/USD pair was trading upward move, developing final C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (B) (coloured green). During the European session, we could observe a strong ascending movement towards the 1.0504 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (B) wave. Therefore, during the early New York session, the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing lower when the development of the final (C) wave started. At the moment, this pair was trading around 1.0450 level and we are expecting to see the price lower today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0504-1.0440-1.0487) with Take Profit at 1.0383 (161.8% of wave 1). Resistance Point at 1.0470 can be used as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0387 (S2) 1.0417 (S1) 1.0436 (PP) 1.0466 (R1) 1.0496 (R2) 1.0515 (R3) 1.0545
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0440 with Stop Loss 1.0370 and Take Profit 1.0383 are recommended.

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Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for September 13, 2012

2012-09-13 15:41:32 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview

The H4 chart shows today that silver takes a downward move after its rebound from the Resistance level of 34.00 and presently it is testing the Support level of 32.90 . If silver continues its bearish view and manages to break this Support level, it will provide a good opportunity to sell below the Support level as well as will make it possible to reach the Support level of 32.40 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Support level to continue the bearish move. In case silver is able to break the Support level of 32.40 and closes 4H below, we will get a bearish strength which will provide new sell signals and enable the Support level of 31.90 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bearish move and takes an upward direction after its rebound from the Support level 32.90 , this will be a strong indicator for the bullish move after closing 4H above the Support level enabling the Resistance level 34.00. In this case, we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the bullish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level of 32.90 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected and invalidating the downward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels

R3(35.00)
R2(34.50)
R1(34.00)

S1(32.90)
S2(32.40)
S3(31.90)

Trading Recommendations

According to previous analysis, we recommend selling in case of closing 4H below the Support level 32.90 with TP 32.45; SL closing 4H above the Support level might be appropriate.

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for September 12, 2012

2012-09-13 15:41:12 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger A wave (coloured blue). Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions, we could observe an ascending movement from 0.9714 towards the 0.9744 level. Therefore, during the New York session, this major pair continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached 0.9768 level (new daily high). At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is developing final (5) wave (coloured purple) and we are expecting to see the price around 0.9750 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B retraces 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracements (0.9713-0.9790) with Take Profit at 0.9745 (61.8% of wave A). Resistance Point at 0.9800 can be used as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9695 (S2) 0.9715 (S1) 0.9727 (PP) 0.9748 (R1) 0.9768 (R2) 0.9780 (R3) 0.9801
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9790 with Stop Loss 0.9800 and Take Profit 0.9745 are recommended.

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