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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for September 4 - 2012

2012-09-04 15:38:24 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, like we expected, developing corrective wave (A) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (E) (coloured orange). Yesterday during the early Asian session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0240 level. Therefore, during the European and New York sessions the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and the price reached 1.0230 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.0245 level and we are expecting to see it around 0.9800 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E retraces 61.8% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets measuring wave C, with Take Profit 1 at 0.9974 (50% of wave C) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9824 (61.8% of wave C). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0375 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the AUD Current Account, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement and U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0192 (S2) 1.0218 (S1) 1.0233 (PP) 1.0259 (R1) 1.0285 (R2) 1.0300 (R3) 1.0326
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0230 with Stop Loss 1.0375 ,Take Profit at 0.9974 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9824 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY 04.09.12. Ichimoku Indicator- Technical Analysis

2012-09-04 14:06:25 (читать в оригинале)

 

Day
We have not witnessed any significant changes on the day time frame. We are still in a sideways move. The break of the two weeks high will give a way to the week Kidjun. The bearish scenario was described yesterday.

H4

We are testing now the trend and the middle lines of the rising channel. Ichimoku supports the bulls as we can see Golden Cross and Bullish Cloud, Chinoku is now in bullish area. We have to get through the resistance. Ichimoku targets cannot be seen on this chart.

Н1
Yesterday we broke through the cloudiness and changed the cross pattern. Now the indicator supports the bulls, but the target for cloud breakthrough is completed in full. However we failed to get through Chinoku that is why after quite long consolidation, we can start a descending movement to look for more reliable levels of support. Rely on more elder time frames.

Legend:
Ichimoku parameters – Hosoda standard 9.26.52.
Short-term trend line – Tenkan – red
Medium-term trend line – Kidjun – green
Long-term trend line – Senoku Span И – blue
Senoku Span A – pink, Chinoku – grey
Fibo Kidjun lines – green dotted line

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD. Forecast for September 4, 2012

2012-09-04 12:52:22 (читать в оригинале)

 

Yesterday we received manufacturing PMI data which exceeded the expectations: 49.5 against 46.2. The British pound improved its positions significantly.
This morning Australian current account balance for the second quarter was disclosed. It made up -11.8 bn against forecasted -12.3 bn.
At 11:00 (GMT+3) Halifax house price index will be released. The analysts expect 0.3% growth against 0.6% fall in July.
At 12:30 (GMT +3) we will get construction PMI for August. The forecast is 50.1 against 50.9 in July. At 18:00 (GMT +3) the USA will publish ISM manufacturing index for August (the experts anticipate 50.1 against 49.8 in July). Thus, the dynamics is still positive.
Technically, after overcoming 1.5915, the next targets will be 1.5850 and 1.5984.

 

  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for September 4, 2012

2012-09-04 12:36:30 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave Analysis:
After Friday’s rally, the EUR/USD pair is flat again. The attempt to test 26 figure again did not add dynamics to the pair. It seems that the currency pair should finish building of the inner wave structure of wave 3 in 5. If it is so, the price will grow to the levels of 1.2640 – 1.2650 and may result in the rebound towards 1.2550.
Targets for Down Wave 4 in 5:
1.2557 – 11.4% Fibonacci
1.2521 – 23.6% Fibonacci
Targets for Wave 3 in 5:
1.2613 – 200.0% Fibonacci
1.2640 – 423.6% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
The most probable outcome is the continuation of the uptrend which transformed into 5 wave. Wave 3 in 5 may resume the building of the uptrend area in the terms of which the rise towards 1.2613 and 1.2640 is most likely which is equal to 200.0% and 423.6% of Fibonacci. The uptrend channel indicates the ascending area of the, fixing below which will signify a stronger decline. After wave 3 in 5 is formed, the pair may begin the wave 4 in 5 (correctional) which may push the currency pair lower towards 1.2557 and 1.2521 which is equal to 11.4% and 23.6% of Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Candlestick Analysis for September 4, 2012

2012-09-04 12:11:04 (читать в оригинале)

Daily

During the last week and during this Monday the pair rate does not show any movements on the intraday time frame. All candlesticks were opened and closed almost at the same level. As the result, despite some candlestick formations were finally built, the rate is still flat and Bearish Harami together with Bullish Absorption prove this best. Now the price may go up to the correctional level of 76.4% Fibpnacci – 100.44 and then initiate a decline towards 100.0% - 97.01. That is why we need to take into account the younger chart to define the end of the flat position.

4h

On 4-hour time frame the situation is the same. The rate is placed between the correctional levels of 50.0% and 61.8%. On Monday after Bullish Absorption was built, the pair made a swing and hit again the Fibonacci level of 61.8% and then tried to fix above it. As the result, the rate can make a turn to the good of the Japanese yen and fall to the correctional level of 50.0% - 97.86. If the situation changes and the quotes will fix above the Fibonacci of 61.8%, the growth may extend towards the next correctional level of 76.4% - 99.83.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com