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China Presented Negative Data - Fundamental Analysis, for August 10, 2012

2012-08-10 17:59:18 (читать в оригинале)

 

The data on Chinese economy for July had a great impact on stock markets and affected exchange rates as well.
The Asian giant presented alarming figures of foreign trade balance with a significant drop in exports which resulted in world imports exponents.
The Australian dollar suffered the most losing its secondary uptrend against the dollar. It is quite obvious as Australia is one of the largest Chinese exporters. And the recent news undoubtedly influenced the market.
But the euro fall is accounted not only for Chinese poor statistics but also for its own evils. Italy announced that it will probably have to ask for fund bailout from the Eurozone, while Spain's situation does not improve.
Meanwhile, the German finance ministry said added more pessimism stating that the risk of growth slowdown of the Eurozone economy is increasing. As it is seen, the situation is difficult within the European currency which, however, does not leave a fairly narrow price range, like all other leading currencies.
Meanwhile, a significant drop in the price of oil is pushing back its top of the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso. The loonie was affected the day before by a negative trade balance from Canada. The USD /CAD rate reached 0.9910, where it found support, technically speaking, in the bottom of a bearish channel on the 4 hour chart. Although it has lost 20 points that separate the current price which evidences that it will not be easy to recover.
The pound sterling accompanies the euro with its downward movement, and has just broken the line passing upward by 1.5605. The minimum of the day, 1.5575, can be easily overcome if the price fails to break higher while seeking a pullback against the mentioned line. The trend of the pound for the next few hours, therefore, is bearish.

 

 

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 10, 2012

2012-08-10 17:31:29 (читать в оригинале)

The USD/CAD pair movement was sluggish bearish during the previous days of consolidation which is manifested within a slightly bearish direction of the Yellow & Violet channels depicted on the chart. In fact, still there was no significant price action until today when the USD/CAD pair has broken the upper limit of the Yellow & Blue channels around 0.9930.
Yesterday, the lower limit of the Violet & Yellow channels around price level of 0.9915 was considered as an intraday Support for the GBP/USD pair which provided a valid BUY opportunity yesterday with TP levels located at 0.9950, 1.0030 then 1.0080.
Price zone of 0.9920 - 0.9930 which corresponds to the backside of the upper limit of the Yellow channel is regarded as an intraday Support level for the pair. If it is retested successfully, this will probably allow the USD/CAD pair to make a bullish movement towards 0.9995 initially.
Bearish breakdown of 0.9880 invalidates the bullish scenario for the current time.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 10, 2012

2012-08-10 16:34:56 (читать в оригинале)

 

The GBP/USD pair has been moving within the triangle pattern after having a quick bearish swing between 1.6300 and 1.5260.
Last week, the GBP/USD pair failed to fix above 1.5720 after going over this considerable price level. That's why price zone between 1.5670-1.5725 has been rejecting the GBP/USD pair obviously which made it worth watching for price action and provided us with a valid SELL entry yesterday.
After finding a significant bearish price action, the GBP/USD pair has broken down the short term uptrend line depicted on the chart which predicts an upcoming bearish movement after retesting the broken trend line.
The expected bearish movement will probably be targeting at the lower limit of the triangle around price level of 1.5510 as a final target. However, breakthrough above 1.5700 invalidates this bearish scenario.

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Silver Remains Locked Under 28.30 Levels.

2012-08-10 13:35:15 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:
Patience is being tested here to the highest level. Any attempt towards 28.30 level is met with a strong selloff on the counter. And each time the counter fails to clear, the probability of a bullish breakout is increasing. This happens because previous lows/supports are not being broken. The rising wedge structure remains very much intact yet until 26.50-27.00 levels, we are recommending buy on dips and hold on to earlier long positions taken. This consolidation pattern assures a powerful breakout that may it be at any side.
Trading Recommendations:
Hold on to long positions taken earlier, stop 26.50, target 1650-1670-1700.

Good Luck!

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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 10,2012

2012-08-10 13:33:02 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CHF Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/CHF pair was trading in an upward move developing corrective wave 2 (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green). Yesterday during the European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 0.9760 level (new 4 days high). Therefore, during the New York session this major pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached 0.9790 level. At the moment, the USD/CHF pair is developing a corrective C wave of the bigger 2 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see the price around 0.9415 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9897-0.9656-0.9795) with Take Profit at 0.9416 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.9897 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Import prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9656 (S2) 0.9691 (S1) 0.9713 (PP) 0.9749 (R1) 0.9784 (R2) 0.9806 (R3) 0.9842
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9765 with Stop Loss 0.9897 and Take Profit 0.9416 are recommended.

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