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Fundamental Analysis, for August 02, 2012

2012-08-02 17:41:23 (читать в оригинале)

 

The Fed left its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday unchanged; making it clear that it will keep the same level till the end of 2014, as announced by the Chairman Bernanke months ago.
But there were more significant events. The expected "QE3" finally failed to come into force and caused disappointment in the markets, which reacted by selling shares on Wall Street and bringing down major currencies, the dollar strengthened naturally.
However, the low was not as significant as during the hours of onset of the U.S. session on Thursday. The Dow Jones index futures resumed their upward trend, while the euro and the British pound maintained a direction not fully defined, but without the bass track that had been observed on the afternoon of Wednesday.
Indeed, the market will have its greatest impact with the press conference which will be held by the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Since his inauguration, Draghi has had quiet months. He debuted in office by cutting interest rates, and was not expected to do it again today, since that would be at 0.75%. His presentation in London last Friday led to all sorts of speculation.
Draghi said that the ECB will do everything necessary to save the euro, a claim supported days later by Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, Germany and France leaders.
Hence it is that the press conference today is even of greater value, the results will show if there will be new easing measures taken to help troubled Spain and Italy.
This can lead to severe movements in the euro pairs, which reach even to the other major pairs. As the second currency of global importance, the euro has the weight to carry to other currencies like the pound, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Of course, this decision made by the Swiss National Bank has tied their fate to the euro to 1.20 before it.
The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged as its policy of buying assets and generated minimal movement in the pound, the expectation of the market is going through the presentation of Draghi.
As always, at 10:00 markets rearrange after the opening of the NYSE, after which trends will make their final course.

 

 

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The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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Silver Technical Levels and Trading Recommendatios for Aug 2 , 2012

2012-08-02 16:21:50 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview

 

The H4 chart demonstrates today that silver takes an upward movement after bouncing from the Support level 27.10. Presently silver is approaching to the Resistance level 27.65 and trying to break it through in order to continue its bullish view. If silver continues the upward movement and manages to break this Resistance level, it will provide a good opportunity to buy above the Resistance level as well as make possible to reach the Resistance level 27.90 as a level target. After that we should wait for breaking out of this Resistance level to continue the bullish move. In case silver is able to break the Resistance level 28.30 and close 4H above, we get a bullish strength which will provide new buy signals and enable the Resistance level 29.10 as a level target.
On the other hand, if silver reverses its bullish move and takes a downward move after its rebound from the Resistance level 27.65, this will be a strong indicator for the bearish move after closing 4H below the Support level 27.10 enabling the Support level 26.70. In this case we should wait for breaking this Support level to continue the bearish view. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide buy signals, but as long as the Resistance level 27.65 is unbroken, the downward move is still expected and invalidating the upward movement. Therefore, we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and Support levels

R3(28.30)
R2(27.90)
R1(27.65)

S1(27.10)
S2(26.70)
S3(26.50)

Trading Recommendations

According to previous analysis, we recommend buying in case of closing 4H above the Resistance level 27.65 with TP 28.00; SL closing 4H below the Resistance level might be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for Aug 2, 2012

2012-08-02 16:20:23 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Overview

 

The H4 chart demonstrates today that the pair takes a downward move after its rebound from the upper limit of the bearish channel. Currently the pair is testing the Support level 121.55 and trying to break it through to continue its bearish move. Given that the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, we will receive a strong indicator for more bearish signals which will enable the Support level 121.15 as a level target. Then we should wait for breaking this Support level to continue the downward move and open the way towards the Support level 120.90.
On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Support level 121.55 and bounces from it, the pair may reverse its bearish move taking an upward move enabling the Resistance level 122.00. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to provide new bullish signals. In case the pair is able to break the Resistance level and close 4H above, we will get a bullish strength providing new buy signals enabling the Resistance level 122.70 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level 121.55 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected invalidating the bearish outlook.

Resistance and Support Levels

R3(123.20)
R2(122.60)
R1(122.00)

S1(121.55)
S2(121.15)
S3(120.90)

Trading Recommendations

According to previous analysis, we recommend selling after breaking the Support level 121.55 and closing 4H below with TP 122.20; SL closing 4 hours above the Support level will be appropriate.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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NZD/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for August 2, 2012

2012-08-02 14:00:15 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

 

• Strong Resistance: 0.8198. Take profit at this level (Bought already since July 24, 2012). 
• Strong Support: 0.8060.

 

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue the movement from the point of 0.8060 (88% of Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart). Thus, kiwi shows the signs of strength, following the breakdown of the highest level 0.8060. This fact can be considered as a good signal for BUY deals above the point 88% and 100% of Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart or at the level (0.8068) with the first targets 0.8145 and 0.82 (it will act as a strong resistance level and is considered to be appropriate for Take Profit orders). It is necessary to mention that this level will coincide between 161.8% of Fibonacci retracement (0.8288) and 100% of Fibonacci retracement (0.81041) However, in case of the reverse movement and if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level 0.8198, the market will show a further decline to the 0.8105 level indicating a bearish mood in order to retest the weekly pivot point 1 at 0.8003.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for August 2, 2012

2012-08-02 13:59:07 (читать в оригинале)

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.2251.

Time Frame: H1

 

 

 

Trading Recommendations:

 Intraday Forecast

 

According to the previous events, the price is still located between 1.2389 and 1.2215.

Buy deals are recommended above 1.2235 with the targets seen at 1.2285 and 1.2403 levels.
Look for further downward movement below 1.2460 with the first target seen at 1.2403 and 1.2315 levels.

 

 

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken the resistance level and turned towards the support level near the two week point of 1.2113 (July 25, 2012). Therefore, the pair has already formed a strong support at 1.2113. Moreover, having failed to close below 1.21, the pair started showing a bullish reaction at this level. It is necessary to mention that these levels coincide with strong levels for bulls on H1 chart; the pair has also formed a strong support at the level of 1.2113//1.2235. So, the pair will move upwards which is a convincing fact; the structure of the upside movement looks as non-corrective indicating a bullish opportunity above 1.2200. This can be a good sign for buy deals above 1.2113/1.2235 with the first target at 1.2285 initiating an uptrend in order to continue the bullish mood towards the point of 1.2403 and further to 1.2455. If the trend breaks the weekly pivot point (1.2251), then the pair will go upwards in these targets. However, it should also be noted that the price is still between 1.2389 and 1.2215, as the Stochastic and the last strong resistance level are still able to begin a downtrend at this level. So the market indicates a bearish opportunity at the level 1.2460 on H1 chart with the first target 1.2403 and continues towards 1.2315.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is ascending, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of the traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurately the psychological support and resistance levels.
  

 

 

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com