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AUD/USD - GAP 1.0325 - For November 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-11-20 19:00:20 (читать в оригинале)

Yesterday the Australian dollar closed trading session at 1.0411. On the other hand, earlier this week the Aussie left a GAP, which is likely to return the pair to cover this gap in the coming hours and began a downward sequence. Given that we have a reversal pattern, we must wait until the level of 1.0325, where the pair has a dynamic support, because it is above EMA 200. At this level we can buy with targets to the level of 1.0532.

At fundamental level this pair has been showing a movement that does not conform to major currencies because of the fundamental data of Australia. Therefore, if you operate with the currency you have to know all the relevant data pertaining to it.

If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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USD/CHF Intraday: Under Pressure

2012-11-20 17:15:57 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/CHF continue to range-trade. The rate is undermined by broadly weaker demand for safe-haven USD amid positive global risk sentiment. But risk sentiment dented by Moody's downgrade of France's rating.
Preference:
Sell below 0.943 with targets 0.9385 and 0.937 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 0.9385
S2 - 0.9374 (Nov. 7 low)
S3 - 0.9355  
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.943. Above 0.943 look for further upside with 0.946 and 0.949 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 0.9461 (Monday's high)
R2 - 0.9491 (Friday's high)
R3 - 0.9515 (Nov. 13 high)
Technical Comment:
As long as 0.943 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from overbought.   

 

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USD/JPY: The Bias Remains Bullish

2012-11-20 15:58:24 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish bias after hitting six-and-a-half month high of 81.59 on Monday, as markets await Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting decision. USD/JPY is buoyed by buying of yen crosses amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.13% to 15.24; S&P surged 1.99% overnight) on heightened hopes for a compromise in U.S. budget negotiations to dodge the impending fiscal cliff; stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. NAHB housing market index to six-and-a-half year high of 46 in November (vs. 42 forecast) from 41 in October; surprise 2.1% on-month increase U.S. October existing-home sales (vs. forecast for 1.1% decrease). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers; expectations that Japan elections Dec. 16 will bring in a new government led by the Liberal Democratic Party and lead to greater monetary easing. But risk sentiment dented after Moody's downgraded France's rating to Aa1 from Aaa. USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales.
Preference:
Long positions above 80.85 with targets at 81.45 and 81.6 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 81.45
R2 - 81.59 (Monday's high)
R3 - 81.78 (April 20 reaction high)
Alternative scenario:
Below 80.85 look for further downside with 80.65 and 80.3 as targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 80.65
S2 - 80.3
A3 - 80.13 (Thursday's low)
Technical Comment:
The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside. USD/JPY daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought; five- and 15-day moving averages are rising. 

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for November 20, 2012

2012-11-20 14:17:31 (читать в оригинале)

The GBP/USD pair has been fluctuating heavily within the past few weeks after the broken DAILY bullish channel was retested around the price zone of 1.6160 - 1.6180, failing to maintain a directional trend.
The false breakout above the short-term descending resistance depicted on the 4H chart was maintained at Daily Resistance Level 1.6160. It activated the bearish scenario, which anticipated further downside pressure supported by the breakdown below 50% Fibonacci (1.5930) that took place a week ago.
Also the narrow consolidation range 1.6025 - 1.5925 was broken to the downside with a potential target near the price level of 1.5780.
Consolidation below the Intraday Support Price Zone 1.5900 - 1.5930 and breakdown of Intraday Support around 1.5850 are necessary to maintain the bearish movement. However, indications of a bullish corrective movement started to appear on the daily chart.
Price levels around 1.5970 constitute a strong DAILY resistance, hence a valid long-term SELL entry with SL is located just above 1.6050.

Support: 1.5830,1.5800, 1.5760, and 1.5670.
Resistance: 1.5920, 1.5970, 1.6000, and 1.6030.   

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for November 20, 2012

2012-11-20 14:16:42 (читать в оригинале)

Last week, in the previous articles, we suggested that the potential downside movement remains valid as long as the pair is trading below 1.0040 and below 1.0000 area, the psychological resistance.

Price zone 0.9880 - 09845 (Important Fibonacci Levels) provided strong support expressing strong bullish price action which is manifest in the giant bullish engulfing daily candlestick.

On Friday the USD/CAD pair expressed strong bearish reaction towards 1.0020-1.0050, failing to consolidate above 1.0040 (the high of Thursday's DAILY candlestick). This indicated a strong bearish move towards 0.9995; then 0.9945 to take place which actually took place after Intraday Support around 0.9980 was broken down.
4H chart shows a possible bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern to be targeting at 0.9955 initially, which was hit yesterday.

Support:   0.9945, 0.9925, and 0.9875.
Resistance: 0.9980, 1.0010, 1.0040, and 1.0080.

• Recommendation

Price zone 1.0025 - 1.0040 provided an excellent SELL entry with SL located above 1.0060.
Now 0.9980 is considered to be another valid SELL entry on retesting targeting 0.9900 initially.   

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