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EUR/USD. Forecast for November 20, 2012

2012-11-20 14:13:11 (читать в оригинале)

 

Sales of existing U.S. homes rose to 4.97 million annual rate against 4.69 million in September (revised from 4.75 million). Yesterday it was reported that, according to Goldman Sachs and Barclays, Q3 GDP would be increased at about a 2.9% annual rate (the unrevised reading was 2.0%). The data will be published on November 29. Bloomberg reported that Fed may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds next year after the expiration of a program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet, which is known as Operation Twist. It is forecast that the Fed will start buying about $45 billion a month, as well with no time limits, more than doubling the $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities the central bank is currently purchasing. Vice Chairman Janet Yellen dropped a hint about it a week ago.
Euro Area finance ministers will meet today. As it is expected there will be talks on Greece’s debt. However, if there is no unanimous decision, then it will be taken during the next meeting held November 26.
The negative aspect is possible bankruptcy of Cyprus, as the government, unlike the Greece’s government, wants to get bailout on its terms, not the terms of EU. However, there should be enough money for three or four weeks in Cyprus treasury. Yesterday Moody's downgraded France’s rating to Aa1 from Aaa followed Standard and Poor’s cut the national rating in January. Reaction of investors was moderate.
At 17:30 (GMT+4) data on housing starts in October is to be published (forecast 850K against 870K in September). At 21:15 (GMT+4) Ben Bernanke is to speak.
Thus, the rise on markets is expected today. Technical targets are determined by the resistances of trendlines on the 4H chart. These are 1.2848, 1.2867, and 1.2900/09.

 

  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for November 20, 2012

2012-11-20 13:03:43 (читать в оригинале)

USD/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/JPY pair was trading in a sideways move, corrective 4 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (A) wave (coloured green) was developing. Yesterday during the European session we could observe price trading between 81.33 and 81.10 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair started pushing higher and price reached 81.42 level. We can consider this move as the end of the (B) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger 4 wave. Today the USD/JPY pair is trading around 81.20 level and we are expecting to see the price at 80.62 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C should retrace 161.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 80.62 (161.8% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 81.43 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 80.85 (S2) 81.04 (S1) 81.16 (PP) 81.36 (R1) 81.55 (R2) 81.67 (R3) 81.87

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 81.10 with stop loss 81.43 and take profit at 80.62 are recommended.

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for November 20, 2012

2012-11-20 13:00:07 (читать в оригинале)

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward movement, impulsive wave (1) (coloured purple of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue) was developing. During the Monday's Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.2740 towards the 1.2787 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new high at 1.2819 level. We can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2800 level and we are expecting to see the price at 1.2911 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.2911 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.2765 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2711 (S2) 1.2741 (S1) 1.2760 (PP) 1.2791 (R1) 1.2821 (R2) 1.2840 (R3) 1.2871

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2820 with stop loss 1.2765 and take profit at 1.2911 are recommended.

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-11-20 12:22:16 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bullish channel at 104.40 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will initiate a more violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals and until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 104.40 with the 1st objective at 103.80 and then at 103.60. A breakthrough of 104.60 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 104.40 with the 1st objective at 105.00 and then at 105.20. A breakthrough of 104.20 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-11-20 12:18:20 (читать в оригинале)

 

Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1,735 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1,735 with the 1st objective at 1,725 and then at 1,722. A breakthrough of 1,738 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,735 with the 1st objective at 1,745 and then at 1,748. A breakthrough of 1,732 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com