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GBP/USD: Technical Analysis for November 16, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5942.

GBP/USD "Pound-Dollar":
Resistance: 1.5990 (sell below this level).
Support: 1.5850 (buy above this level).

Trading Recommendations:
According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5950 and 1.6000.
The descending movement will probably be lower than 1.5990 level with the first targets at 1.5940 and 1.5855 levels.
Buy deals are recommended above the 1.5850 level with targets at 1.5922 and 1.5990 levels.

Overview:

GBP/USD Wave Analysis for November 16, 2012

Wave Analysis:

During yesterday’s trading session the GBP/USD pair continued to slide along the median line of the sloping channel. When it had reached the level of 1.5825 it moved 50 basis points up. Thus, being in the range of assumed wave 3 (or C); it is likely that the pair is forming an inner wave structure. If it is so, 1.5800-to-1.5740 levels range may be considered as the first target level.

Targets for Down Wave 3 or C (if the wave is getting more complicate):

1.5837 – 38.2% of Fibonacci
1.5799 – 61.8% of Fibonacci

Targets for Up Wave 4 or 1 or a new Uptrend (it will be revised):

1.5982 – 11.4% of Fibonacci
1.6008 – 23.6% of Fibonacci

Summary and Trading Recommendations:

Downtrend continues its formation. However, wave C may be completed or will complete in the short term if certain conditions are created. The targets for assumed down move are 1.5837 and 1.5799, which is corresponding to 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci in terms of wave 3 or C of downtrend if it complicates its inner wave structure. After its completion up wave 4 or the first wave of a new uptrend with targets 1.5982 and 1.6008, which is corresponding to 11.4% and 23.6%, may start its building. These targets will be revised. The pound continues moving mainly with three-wave wave structures. Divergence of MACD was not observed. Downward channel still preserves the perspectives to resume building of down wave and the whole downtrend.

USD/JPY: Further Advance

Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating after hitting six-and-a-half month high of 81.46 on Thursday on expectations that opposition Liberal Democratic Party would win early December elections and endorse more monetary easing to boost Japan's economy. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiment dented by Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index tumbling to minus 10.7 in November from 5.7 last month, while New York Fed's Empire State index for November stayed in negative territory at minus 5.2. USD/JPY upside is also limited by Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (S&P slipped 0.16% overnight) on concerns over looming U.S. fiscal cliff of tax hikes and budget cuts that could push the U.S. economy into contraction, and data showing euro zone slipped into recession; lower U.S. Treasury yields; positions adjustment before weekend.
Preference:
Buy above 80.65 with targets 81.4 and 81.7 in extension.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 81.46-81.48 (Thursday's high-61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 15 high of 84.18 to Sept. 13 low of 77.13)
R2 - 81.75 (April 20 reaction high)
R3 - 82.00 
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 80.65. Below 80.65 look for further downside with 80.3 and 80.05 as targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 80.3
S2 - 80.05
S3 - 79.75
Tehcnical Comment:
The next resistances are at 81.4 and then at 81.7. USD/JPY daily chart is positive-biased as MACD & stochastics are in bullish mode.  

USD/CHF: Under pressure

Overview:
USD/CHF is consolidating after hitting six-day low of 0.9401 on Thursday. The rate is underpinned by broadly stronger demand for safe-haven USD amid negative risk sentiment. But USD/CHF upside is limited by positions adjustment before weekend.
Preference:
Sells below 0.9465 with targets 0.941 and 0.9375 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 0.9401 (Thursday's low, near 200-day moving average)
S2 - 0.9374 (Nov. 7 low)
S3 - 0.935  
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.9465 . Above 0.9465 look for further upside with 0.948 and 0.9515 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 0.9481 (Wednesday's high)
R2 - 0.9515 (Tuesday's high)
R3 - 0.9531 (100-day moving average) 
Technical Comment:
The pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from overbought.  

EUR/JPY Wave Analysis for November 16, 2012

Daily

After EUR/JPY has rebounded from the correctional level 38.2% - 100.73 of Fibonacci on the daily chart the pair continues its upswing in the value of the euro towards the level of correction 61.8% - 104.81. The consolidation above the level enables the growth of the rate towards the next level of correction 76.4% - 107.30. Formation of a bearish candlestick pattern allows the pair to make a turn in favor of the yen and start falling. The rebound from the correctional level 61.8% of Fibonacci enables the pair to drop towards the level of correction 38.2%. The last candlestick pattern that was formed was bullish engulfing pattern. It enables the pair to rebound from the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci and start growing.
4h

On the 4H chart after the bullish engulfing pattern and bullish harami pattern were formed, the quotes consolidated above the level of correction 23.6% - 103.42 of Fibonacci. As a result the rise of the rate may continue towards the next level of correction 0.0% - 104.58. A rebound from this correctional level gives a reason to consider the beginning of drop towards the yen. Formation of bearish harami pattern enables the pair to move down and consolidate under the level of correction 23.6%. In this case the drop of the rate may continue towards the level of correction 38.2% - 102.69. The rebound from the level of correction 23.6% provides a possibility for the pair to resume the upswing.