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USD/JPY: Downside Prevails

2012-11-08 13:38:57 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY continues to trade in lower range. The rate is undermined by flows to safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.53% to 19.08, S&P fell 2.37% overnight) as belief that Obama's presidential election victory would pave way for continued partisan brinkmanship in year-end negotiations over the U.S. fiscal cliff overshadowed assurance of continued monetary stimulus for the U.S. economy from an Obama win, although Republican House Speaker Boehner said he was ready to negotiate to avoid the cliff. USD/JPY is also weighed by worries about debt-laden Greece; lower U.S. Treasury yields; and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers.
Preference:
Sell below 80.15 with targets 79.75 and 79.65 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.76 (Wednesday's low, matching Nov. 1 low)
S2 - 79.62 (200-day moving average)
79.51 (Oct. 31 low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 80.15. Above 80.15 look for further upside with 80.3 and 80.45 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.3
R2 - 80.41-80.45 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high)
R3 - 80.57-80.68 band (Monday's high-Friday's high)  
Technical Comment:

A break below 79.75 would trigger a drop towards 79.65. USD/JPY daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought; MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.
 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for November 08, 2012

2012-11-08 13:34:35 (читать в оригинале)

Wave Analysis:

The development of a wave structure so far has been swift amid the U.S. presidential election. The EUR/USD pair was not able to form wave e in the ascending triangle. As a result it managed to correct itself in terms of the downtrend between 1 and 5 November. Meanwhile, the second break of level of figure 28 led to the whole downtrend, which began from the high of October 31, might be considered as inner 5 wave structure of wave C. if it is so, then the targets for this wave C are in the range from yesterday’s low to 1.2680.

Targets for wave C of Downtrend (if is not completed):

1.2746 – 326.6% of Fibonacci

Targets for Up Wave D or 1 or a of New Uptrend:

 

1.2818 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
1.2849 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

 

Summary and Trading Recommendations:

The revise of the wave structure gives reasons to conclude that the current move belongs to wave C, which presumably completes its building. In terms of wave C the descending movement may continue towards 1.2746 and lower, which is corresponding to 323.6% of Fibonacci. After it the up wave D of the downtrend may start its building or the first waves of a new uptrend, which may raise quotes to the levels of 1.2818 and 1.2849, which is corresponding to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. The rate is inside a new downtrend. If the pair breaks it, then it indicates that the rate is ready to start building of an up wave.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-11-08 12:39:17 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 101.60 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bearish channel.
Technical indicators provide buy signals, and until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 101.60 with the 1st objective at 102.20 and then at 102.40. A breakthrough of 101.40 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 101.60 with the 1st objective at 101.00 and then at 100.80. A breakthrough of 101.80 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-11-08 12:37:07 (читать в оригинале)

 

Gold approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1,742 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators provide buy signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
Gold is currently testing the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1,742 with the 1st objective at 1,732 and then at 1,730. A breakthrough of 1,745 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,742 with the 1st objective at 1,752 and then at 1,755. A breakthrough of 1,739 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-11-08 12:35:04 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium-term bullish channel at 1.6010. It seems that a decline was initiated. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and reach the upper limit of its channel at 1.6070.
Technical indicators provide buy signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in the short term.
The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 1.6010 with the 1st objective at 1.5950 and then at 1.5930. A breakthrough of 1.6030 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.6010 with the 1st objective at 1.6070 and then at 1.6090. A breakthrough of 1.5990 will invalidate this scenario.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com