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USD/JPY Analysis for November 2, 2012
2012-11-02 14:38:24 (читать в оригинале)Daily

On the daily chart the yen has formed the last Divergence near the Stochastic indicator. Consequently, the pair dropped towards the correctional level 76.4% - 77.96 of Fibonacci and rebounded towards the US currency. As a result, the rate’s growth continued towards the correctional level 61.8% of Fibonacci; then USD/JPY consolidated above it in the direction of the level of correction 50.0% - 80.09 of Fibonacci. Meanwhile, the Divergence near the CCI indicator is about to appear. If the peak of the indicator is not higher than the previous one, then the rate will be higher than the previous peak (80.37). The formation of such a Divergence enables the rate to turn in favor of the yen. The rebound from the level of correction 50.0% or 38.2% - 81.08 enables the pair to start drop.
4h

On the 4H chart Divergence has not been formed in the recent time. After the rate consolidated above the correctional level 200.0 – 79.78 of Fibonacci, the USD/JPY pair may continue the rate’s growth towards the correctional level 261% - 80.34 of Fibonacci. The rebound from the level of correction 261.8% enables the rate to swing at the yen and start falling. The Divergence at MACD is about to happen; if the current peak of the indicator is not higher than the previous one (Oct. 26), then the price shows the rise above the corresponding peak on the price chart. (80.37). In this case, the pair may swing towards the yen and start down move. Especially if the second point of Divergence is near any level of Fibonacci correction. The rate’s consolidation above 261.8% of Fibonacci enables the pair to continue the upward move towards the next level of correction 323.6% - 80.92.
EUR/AUD Wave Analysis for November 2, 2012
2012-11-02 13:04:43 (читать в оригинале).png)
EUR/AUD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/AUD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (5) (coloured green) was developing. During the European session we could observe descending movement from 1.2513 towards the 1.2466 level. Therefore, during the New York session this pacific currency continued trading in a bearish mood reaching a new daily low at 1.2437 level. Today the EUR/AUD pair finished 3 impulsive wave at 1.2417 and we are expecting to see price lower again when development of the 5 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.2367 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.2483 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2384 (S2) 1.2413 (S1) 1.2431 (PP) 1.2461 (R1) 1.2490 (R2) 1.2508 (R3) 1.2538
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2448 with stop loss 1.2483 and take profit at 1.2367 are recommended.
USD/CHF Wave Analysis for November 2, 2012
2012-11-02 13:00:17 (читать в оригинале).png)
USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move, corrective (B) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (B) wave (coloured orange) was developing. Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 0.9311 towards the 0.9341 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new daily low at 0.9295 level. Today we could observe the USD/CHF pair trading around 0.9355 level and we are expecting to see price around 0.9448 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C should retrace 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A, with take profit 1 at 0.9448 (100% of wave A) and take profit 2 at 0.9555 (161.8% of wave A) . To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9276 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9271 (S2) 0.9289 (S1) 0.9300 (PP) 0.9318 (R1) 0.9336 (R2) 0.9347 (R3) 0.9365
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9365 with stop loss 0.9276, take profit 1 at 0.9448, and take profit 2 at 0.9555 are recommended.
EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis
2012-11-02 12:57:10 (читать в оригинале)
The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 104.00 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide clear signals, but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in the recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
The spot rate is currently approaches the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 104.00 with the 1st objective at 103.40 and then at 103.20. A breakthrough of 104.20 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 104.00 with the 1st objective at 104.60 and then at 104.80. A breakthrough of 103.80 will invalidate this scenario.
GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis
2012-11-02 12:55:14 (читать в оригинале)
Gold approaches the lower limit of its medium-term bearish channel at 1,697 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a violent bearish channel.
Technical indicators provide sell signals, but until the support is not broken the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are stabilized showing a more regular volatility.
Gold approaches the lower limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios. The first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 1,697 with the 1st objective at 1,709 and then at 1,715. A breakthrough of 1,694 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop” which means to sell gold as soon as it is broken through its support of 1,697 with the 1st objective at 1,687 and then at 1,684. A breakthrough of 1,700 will invalidate this scenario.
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