Fundamental Analysis, for August 24, 2012
2012-08-24 18:08:27 (читать в оригинале)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras in Berlin this morning. The outcome of this meeting will generate significant movements in the euro pairs. This time the currency rate suggests that investors are optimistic about the meeting. Both, Germany and France appear to have lost patience regarding the situation in Greece. Each country has its own reason: Greece spent more, driven by debt costs. Germany and its allies allowed such a thing; they have no other choice as to pay for this decision.
In fact, Germany may stop pressuring Greece with the support of France (Hollande quickly adapted to his office and put aside their utopias).
In Spain the issue passes whether Rajoy asks the European Union for a bailout (in which case his political capital will be reduced to a minimum) or if the European Union makes the governmental wear. As in the case of Greece, the states have more to gain than to lose in this fight. By the way, did the IMF forget that Chief Christine Lagarde said no to the euro in May if no action was taken during 3 months? It's August, ma'am, no action was taken, and the euro broke 1.25.
Indeed, the single currency remains firm at that level against the dollar, another unintended consequence for Southern Europe. No to Germany, of course, that dumps most of its sales abroad in the Eurozone.
It is true meeting with Samaras was of much importance. If you go back to your old study guides, none of them appears to demonstrate that a meeting between two prime ministers can generate so much noise in the markets. But everything changes, and fundamental analysis is turning to this type of event, irrelevant of the past.
For now, the euro does defend its rise in the last days, although it fell from 1.2587, the highest of the week, to the current 1.2505. Its tendency, ahead of the U.S. session, is bearish, although, as stated above, it will take a more definite direction after the meeting between Merkel and Samaras.
As for the British pound, the final weak UK GDP for the second quarter made it stumbling, but its short-term outlook looks firmer-up. The yen was unchanged, and currencies linked to oil weakened less than it was possible: a barrel of oil (other markets thermometer) fell more than two dollars a day earlier.
Finally, the Australian dollar seems to lose its way slowly upward in recent days against the gold position, which fixed in its highest since early April. Gold is a true symbol of the markets. It's a small market, but its existence is does not dependent emission as production does and its existence is not infinite. Follow the gold, and do not be surprised to see it above $ 2,000 per ounce even before the end year.
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