USD/JPY: Further Advance
2012-10-25 11:43:26 (читать в оригинале)
Overview:
USD/JPY is trading with risks skewed higher. U.S. Federal Reserve as expected said it would keep its "exceptionally low" interest rates through mid-2015 and that it would continue buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month - in line with its September statement. USD/JPY is underpinned by demand from Japan importers and weak JPY sentiment on expectations for further monetary easing from Bank of Japan at its Oct. 30 meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by yen-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 2.66% to 18.33) on upbeat HSBC China October manufacturing PMI, although U.S. stocks closed lower (S&P down 0.31%) as Fed reiterated its concerns over U.S. economy. But USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan exporter sales; there are concerns about U.S. "fiscal cliff" that could throw the U.S. economy back into recession.
Preference:
As USPJPY is expected to trade in higher ranges, long position is recommended. Buy above 79.65 with 80.1 and 80.35 in sight.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.09 (Tuesday's high-July 5 high)
R2 - 80.35
R3 - 80.63 (June 25 high), then 81.78 (April 20 reaction high).
Alternative scenario:
In case price moves below 79.65 the downside penetration of 79.65 will call for a slide towards 79.4 and 79.1.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.4
S2 - 79.1
S3 - 78.91 (Oct. 18 low)
Technical Comment:
The pair remains on the upside and is challenging its resistance. USD/JPY daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought, and five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and rising.
The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com
