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Samba Financial Group: The GCC - Economic Outlook (Dec-2012)

2011-12-06 19:36:00 (читать в оригинале)

The global environment has become more challenging and risky, with much hanging on developments in the eurozone. With a recession now on the cards in Europe, global growth will slow to 3.2 percent next year, with the US posting 1.5 percent growth and emerging markets 5.5 percent. Oil markets are likely to weaken, although sustained growth in emerging markets oil demand will provide support. GCC oil production will need to be scaled back to accommodate the return of Libyan oil, and further OPEC coordinated cuts may be needed to keep prices around $100/b.GCC real GDP growth is expected to surge to 7 percent in 2011 on the back of increased oil production and soaring oil revenues which are being spent by governments on boosting salaries and employment as well as supporting development agendas. While sustained fiscal stimulus will continue to bolster non-oil sectors, a weaker global environment and reduced contribution from oil sectors will see growth dip to 3.7 percent in 2012.The benign global inflation environment will help keep GCC rates under control, despite high public spending. The dollar exchange rate peg will be maintained and GCC interest rates will remain low in line with US rates. Domestic credit growth should continue to revive, although growth will likely remain relatively modest. GCC banks generally remain well capitalised and liquid, although country specific constraints are apparent.Although government spending has risen sharply and oil prices are expected to decline, GCC states (except Bahrain) are still projected to run healthy fiscal and current account surpluses in 2012. That said, fiscal positions are now more vulnerable to oil price movements. The average budget break-even price for the GCC as a whole is estimated to have risen to $70/b.