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BMI: United Arab Emirates Real Estate Report (Nov-11)

2011-12-06 15:57:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI is below consensus in our forecast that sees real GDP expanding 3.3% in 2011 and averaging 4.1%through to 2016. Nevertheless, the UAE?s status as a safe haven amid the regional turmoil of the Arabspring is actually benefiting the economy: resultant growth and investment in the domestic banking andtourism sectors as a consequence of Bahraini unrest is of particular note. This is good news for the retailand tourism sub-sectors of the UAE real estate market.However, the commercial market remains plagued by huge amounts of unoccupied property and weakcredit conditions. Even with improving economic prospects and expected increased demand, the immensevolume of oversupply will continue to depress rentals. New supply was certainly limited in H111, butplenty of projects are still under way.Underlying figures from CPI Financial show that the value of cancelled and delayed construction projectsin the UAE rose 13% month-on-month to US$170bn in August 2011. The country accounted for 56% ofthe total cancelled or delayed projects in the Middle East and North Africa during the month. Theseconcerning figures no doubt contributed to Dubai Land Department?s Q311 launch of its Real EstateDevelopment Plan, which is to give a rescue package to 100 projects with financial problems.