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BMI: United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report (Sept-11)

2011-12-19 13:10:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI?s Q411 update to the UAE?s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from theTelecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and EmiratesIntegrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of June 2011. It contains an analysisof the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains ourfirst five-year growth forecast for mobile ARPUs in the UAE, in addition to updated forecast for themobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.In September 2011, fixed-line incumbent and mobile market leader Etisalat launched its LTE network forhigh-speed broadband services. The LTE-FDD mobile network will cover all major cities in the countryin the first deployment phase, with Etisalat promising data download speeds of up to 100Mbps for itscustomers. More than 700 base stations were upgraded for the LTE network. Etisalat plans to upgrade upto 1,000 base stations by the end of 2011. Second-ranked du intends to launch commercial services by theend of 2011.According to the TRA, there were 11.180mn mobile subscribers in the UAE at the end of June 2011. Thisrepresents growth of 1% q-o-q and 5% y-o-y. Our analysis of the UAE?s mobile market is based onoverall market data published by the TRA. This is because of the regulator?s clear definition of themethod used to calculate the number of active subscribers and the use by du of the same method. We,therefore, calculate the number of active subscribers on Etisalat?s mobile network by subtracting du?ssubscriber base of the regulator?s overall subscriber base. We have upgraded our mobile growth forecastthis quarter following strong net additions during H111, mainly driven by du. We now expect the numberof mobile subscribers in the UAE to reach 12.199mn by 2015, reflecting a penetration rate of 235%.The fixed-line sector recorded positive growth in Q211, albeit it at a significantly slower rate than in the