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BMI: UAE Retail Report (Dec-11)

2012-02-07 17:04:00 (читать в оригинале)

The Q112 BMI UAE Retail report forecasts that the country?s retail sales will grow from an estimatedAED113.37bn (US$30.87bn) in 2011 to AED156.53bn (US$42.62bn) by 2015. Key factors behind theforecast are strong underlying economic growth (especially if the debt overhang in Dubai is resolved),increasing household consumption, growing acceptance of modern retailing concepts and expatriatewealth.The UAE?s nominal GDP in 2011 is estimated to be US$342.78bn. BMI predicts average annual GDPgrowth of 3.9% between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from an expected 7.9mn in 2011to an estimated 8.4mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$53,646 by the end of the forecastperiod.Discrepancies in wealth across the country are evident in GDP per capita statistics (which BMI estimatedthrough 2005 census population and 2008 GDP data), ranging from as high as US$110,251 in Abu Dhabito as low as US$15,451 and US$20,861 in Ajman and Ras al-Khaimah respectively.Average household spending power in the UAE stood at US$14,400 per annum in 2008, according toproperty consultant Colliers International. Emirati households accounted for the majority of thisspending with an average of US$23,000, while Western, other Arab and Asian households had annualspending power of US$19,500, US$13,500 and US$10,000 respectively.While Emiratis contribute to retail sales, the buying power of the country?s expatriate residents is themajor source of success, according to a study by Indian research firm RNCOS. Tourism is also a massivefactor in stimulating retail growth, with the UAE expecting the number of tourists to have totalled morethan 11mn in 2010.Growing urbanisation is another factor in the buoyancy of the retail sector. Abu Dhabi in particular ishighly urbanised, with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) projecting that Abu Dhabi City?s populationwill rise to 1.3mn by 2013. In 2005, 85.5% of the UAE?s population was classified by the UN