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BMI: United Arab Emirates Power Report (Dec-11)

2012-02-07 17:04:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although itwould be a surprise to see the UAE having operational reactors during the current decade. The emiratesappreciate the need to cap oil and gas use in power generation, so new clean coal technology is to beused over the medium term. There is growing momentum behind the use of renewables, with internationalbacking being sought for ambitious programmes.It has been estimated that the UAE?s electricity sector will require at least US$8bn in investment over thenext six to eight years in order to meet growing demand, and the government has plans to expandinstalled capacity by more than 50% during the current decade.Key trends and recent developments in the UAE electricity market include:During the 2011-2021 period, the UAE?s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annualaverage of 5.03%, reaching 138.5TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 4.67% gain in gas-fired and a0.90% rise in oil-fired generation, accompanied by rapid growth in renewables-based electricity supply,albeit from a very low base. It is assumed that nuclear generation will be available from 2021.The UAE has reconfirmed its renewable energy aspirations, revealing that the government aims to boostinvestment in clean energy technology over the next five years and attract AED367bn (US$100bn) ofinvestment in alternative and sustainable energy projects by 2020.Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 3.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of3.8% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 7.9mn to 9.3mnduring the 2011-2021 period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 73.4TWh to96.3TWh by 2016, rising further to 119.6TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annualgrowth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.44%, but slowing later in the decade to an average4.71% in 2016-