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BMI: United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report (Nov-11)

2012-02-10 14:41:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI View Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) schemes and investments from both IOCs and NOCs underscore our bullish view of the UAE?s oil sector. The country will also remain a key player in the region?s gas market, sustaining its role as a dual importer and exporter of natural gas. The opening of the ADCOP pipeline builds redundancy into the UAE?s oil export pipeline system, in the event of conflict affecting the Straits of Hormuz.We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE?s oil and gas sector:- BMI sees proven oil reserves declining from 96.8bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to just over 91bn bbl by 2016, with gas reserves also falling from 6trn cubic metres (tcm) to around 5.8tcm over the same period.- We see oil production rising to over 3.2mn b/d by 2016 and nearly 3.5mn b/d by 2021, supported by re-development of mature fields, the deployment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and investment from international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs).- Gas production will receive a big mid-decade boost from the start-up of the Shah sour gas project. By 2016, we see output of around 66bcm, rising to 74bcm by 2021. - The UAE will continue to export modest volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) while importing pipeline gas via Dolphin from Qatar. We have not factored a volume rise for either flow into our forecasts.- The liberalisation of fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, owing to government largesse following political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011. Fuels distribution in the UAE will, therefore, continue to be a loss-making proposition. The UAE?s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country?s export revenues. Our assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices will fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creati