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BMI: United Arab Emirates Real Estate Report (Jan-12)

2012-02-16 14:41:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI is below consensus in its forecast that sees the UAE?s real GDP expanding 3.3% in 2011 andaveraging 4.1% through to 2016. Nevertheless, the UAE?s status as a safe haven amid the regionalturmoil of the Arab spring is actually benefiting the economy: resultant growth and investment in thedomestic banking and tourism sectors as a consequence of Bahraini unrest is of particular note. This isgood news for the retail and tourism sub-sectors of the UAE real estate market.However, the commercial market remains plagued by huge amounts of unoccupied property and weakcredit conditions. Even with improving economic prospects and expected increased demand, the immensevolume of oversupply will continue to depress rentals. New supply was certainly limited in H111, butplenty of projects are still under way.Underlying figures from CPI Financial show that the value of cancelled and delayed construction projectsin the UAE rose 13% month-on-month to US$170bn in August 2011. The country accounted for 56% ofthe total cancelled or delayed projects in the Middle East and North Africa during the month. Theseconcerning figures no doubt contributed to the Dubai Land Department?s Q311 launch of its Real EstateDevelopment Plan, which is to give a rescue package to 100 projects with financial problems.The bursting of the UAE?s real estate bubble in 2008 has had largely negative consequences, with thegovernment having to resort to bailouts to shore up the sector, and bondholders facing losses. Certainlarge prestige projects, such as Dubailand, have stalled, although the sector as a whole is showing signs ofrecovery, with rental rate growths a sign that high oil revenues are encouraging greater demand. Retail inparticular is emerging as a strong growth area. In the long term, those companies that are most likely toflourish are those that move to income-generating assets such as shopping malls and leasing.