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BMI: United Arab Emirates Shipping Report (Jan-12)

2012-02-20 15:21:00 (читать в оригинале)

The UAE is set for another year of steady yet relatively uninspiring growth through 2012, with real GDP forecast to expand by 3.0%. This follows an estimated 3.3% rate of expansion posted in 2011. Broadly speaking, the same problems that have been weighing on the economy since 2009 look set to continue over the coming quarters, with weakness in the domestic real estate market, anaemic credit growth and ongoing deleveraging in the private sector tempering our near-term outlook. Our real GDP growth forecast for the coming year is slightly below consensus; however, this is largely a product of BMI's relatively more pessimistic outlook on the health of the global economy.The outlook for the UAE's ports in 2012 is more upbeat, benefiting from their role as transhipment hubs. Strong growth is forecast by BMI at all of the emirates' major ports despite the headwinds facing the global economy, though we project that this growth rate will slow over our forecast period to 2016. The country's ports are proving themselves resilient in the face of increasing regional competition in the Gulf, with the Port of Jebel Ali announcing a capacity expansion to be completed over the mid term.Headline Industry Data:- Jebel Ali and Port Rashid's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2012 and to average 5.9% through to 2016.- Sharjah container throughput (KCT and SCT) is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2012, averaging 5.5% over the medium term.- Jebel Ali container throughput is forecast to grow by 10.9% in 2012, following estimated growth of 11.9% in 2011. Through to 2016, we expect growth to average 8.5%.- Total trade real growth is forecast at 9.0% in 2012 and to average 7.2% through to 2016.Key Industry Trends:Jebel Ali Announces Further Expansion Plans, Securing Gulf Transhipment Crown BMI believes that the DP World flagship facility of Jebel Ali in Dubai will remain the premier transhipment hub for the Gulf region, even in the face of increasing competition as the ot