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BMI: United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report (Mar-12)

2012-04-13 16:17:00 (читать в оригинале)

BMI?s Q212 update to the UAE?s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of December 2011. It contains an analysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains our growth estimates for the key sectors during our forecast period, through to 2016.The TRA?s intention to drive competition in the fixed-line sector received a major boost in March 2012 with the introduction of the carrier pre-selection service (CPS). The service allows users to choose their service provider regardless of the main access line provider. BMI sees this as major step towards full implementation of fixed network infrastructure sharing in the UAE, which has been delayed several times before. At the time of writing, local media suggested the process might eventually kick-off by mid-2012.These developments were reported after updates to our fixed-line forecast and historical data analysis. We will therefore factor in their implications for future growth in subsequent updates to our UAE telecoms market report. Our current forecast, which was upgraded this quarter following better than expected subscriber growth in Q411, envisages fixed-line subscriptions to reach 1.9mn by 2016, a penetration rate of 22.4%.The mobile sector also recorded strong growth in 2011 after market leader Etisalat broke a cycle of four consecutive quarterly subscriber losses, with net additions of 187,000 subscribers in Q411. Secondranked du continued its strong performance in Q411, with net additions of 278,000 subscribers. This brought the UAE?s total mobile subscriber base to 11.727mn at the end of December 2011, up by 4.1% qo-q from 11.262mn in the previous quarter and by 7.1% y-o-y from 10.926mn subscribers a year earlier. Based on the revision to our UAE population data in our previ