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BMI: United Arab Emirates Shipping Report (May-12)

2012-06-04 14:23:00 (читать в оригинале)

Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates.We recently revised up our forecasts for 2012 UAE real GDP growth, and are now projecting the economy to expand 3.5% this year, up from last quarter's forecast of 3.0%. This follows an estimated 3.3% rate of expansion posted in 2011. Broadly speaking, the same problems that have been weighing on the economy since 2009 look set to continue over the coming quarters, with weakness in the domestic real estate market, anaemic credit growth and ongoing deleveraging in the private sector tempering our nearterm outlook. The country will also be hit by trade restrictions on Iran, which will affect port volumes.However, the bright outlook for the hydrocarbons sector (with supply fears helping to keep oil prices high) coupled with healthy tourism growth will help the country maintain, if not spectacular, at least healthy, economic expansion. Both of these industries will also support the shipping sector, with oil and gas as well as consumer goods passing through the country's facilities.As a result, the outlook for the UAE's ports in 2012 is upbeat. The facilities also benefit from their role as transhipment hubs. Strong growth is forecast by BMI at all of the emirates' major ports despite the headwinds facing the global economy, though we project that this growth rate will slow over our forecast period to 2016. The country's ports are proving themselves resilient in the face of increasing regional competition in the Gulf, with the Port of Jebel Ali announcing a capacity expansion to be completed over the mid term.Headline Industry Data:- Jebel Ali and Port Rashid's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2012 and to average 5.8% through to 2016.- Sharjah container throughput (KCT and SCT) is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2012, averaging 5.7% over the medium term.- Jebel Ali container throughput is forecast to grow by 13.0% in 2012. Through to 2016, we expect growth to average 8.6%.- Total trade real growth is forecast