Key Insights And Key Risks:As of March 2012, recent developments and the latest data serve to confirm our view that the UAE is one of the largest and most dynamic of the insurance markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The published accounts of the larger listed insurance companies in relation to 2011 indicate that both segments grew at (low) double-digit rates in terms of gross written premiums. As was the case in Q112, we continue to see the development of takaful, which has been led by Islamic Arab Insurance Company (Salama) as a key driver of growth for the entire sector.Importantly, much of the newsflow through the later part of Q411 and Q112 indicated that the UAE?s insurers are responding proactively to the competitive and often difficult conditions prevailing in the nonlife segment (especially). During 2011, several insurers allowed premiums and profits to contract as they focused on writing business that would contribute to profitability over the medium- to long-term. Various partnerships have been announced to exploit areas of opportunity, such as health insurance. Retention rates have risen. New products have been developed. Meanwhile, HDFC Life, the largest private sector life company in India, has established an operation in Dubai that focuses, not unreasonably, on wealthier non-resident Indians (NRIs). As was the case three months ago, it appears that the majority of companies in the UAE?s insurance sector were largely unaffected by the volatility of global financial markets through 2011.Looking forward, we remain of the view that some kind of consolidation will take place in the competitive landscape. The largest UAE insurers ? such as Salama, Oman Insurance Company and Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company (ADNIC) write annual premiums of around US$600-800mn. By this metric, they are roughly half the size of Tawuniya, the largest insurance company in Saudi Arabia and would rate as no more than medium-sized players in most oth

The Q212 BMI UAE Retail report forecasts that the country?s retail sales will grow from an estimated AED124.07bn (US$33.78bn) in 2012 to AED179.15bn (US$48.78bn) by 2016. Key factors behind the forecast are strong underlying economic growth (especially if the debt overhang in Dubai is resolved), increasing household consumption, growing acceptance of modern retailing concepts, and expatriate wealth.The UAE?s nominal GDP in 2012 is estimated to be US$367bn. BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 4.6% between 2012 and 2016. With the population increasing from an expected 8.1mn in 2012 to an estimated 8.5mn by 2016, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$60,166 by the end of the forecast period.Discrepancies in wealth across the country are evident in GDP per capita statistics (which BMI estimated through 2005 census population and 2008 GDP data), ranging from as high as US$110,251 in Abu Dhabi to as low as US$15,451 and US$20,861 in Ajman and Ras al-Khaimah respectively.Average household spending power in the UAE stood at US$14,400 per annum in 2008, according to property consultant Colliers International. Emirati households accounted for the majority of this spending with an average of US$23,000, while Western, other Arab and Asian households had annual spending power of US$19,500, US$13,500 and US$10,000 respectively.While Emiratis contribute to retail sales, the buying power of the country?s expatriate residents is the major source of success, according to a study by Indian research firm RNCOS. Tourism is also a massive factor in stimulating retail growth, with BMI forecasting UAE tourist arrivals to reach 12.57mn in 2012, a 7.1% rise on the previous year.Growing urbanisation is another factor in the buoyancy of the retail sector. Abu Dhabi in particular is highly urbanised, with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) projecting that Abu Dhabi City?s population will rise to 1.3mn by 2013. In 2005, 85.5% of the UAE?s population was classified by the UN as

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