The UAE is set for another year of steady yet relatively uninspiring growth through 2012, with real GDPforecast to expand by 3.0%. This follows an estimated 3.3% rate of expansion posted in 2011. Broadlyspeaking, the same problems that have been weighing on the economy since 2009 look set to continueover the coming quarters, with weakness in the domestic real estate market, anaemic credit growth andongoing deleveraging in the private sector tempering our near-term outlook. Our real GDP growthforecast for the coming year is slightly below consensus; however, this is largely a product of BMI'srelatively more pessimistic outlook on the health of the global economy.The outlook for the UAE's freight transport sector in 2012 is more upbeat, benefiting from the role ofthe country's ports and airports as transhipment hubs. Strong growth is forecast by BMI at all of theemirates' major facilities despite the headwinds facing the global economy, though we project that thisgrowth rate will slow over our forecast period to 2016.Headline Industry Data2012 Jebel Ali and Port Rashid total tonnage throughput growth forecast at 7.2%, and to average 5.9%to 2016.2012 air freight tonnes through Dubai airport forecast to grow by 5.4% and to average 5.9% to 2016.The UAE's total trade real growth in 2012 forecast to be 9.0%, and to average 7.2% over the mediumterm, to 2016.Key Industry TrendsRail Development Steams Ahead In UAE Through Loan ApprovalBMI believes that the rail network under development in the UAE, and the wider GCC, will give a boostto freight transport in the region, enabling more efficient transport of goods through integration withindustrial zones, mines and ports, and releasing capacity on the road network.SkyCargo's Maiden Ireland Flight To Serve Pharmaceuticals IndustryBMI notes that the transport of pharmaceuticals is a growing concern for air freight companies, withconsiderable investment being made into developing tran

Oil markets have been roiled by the EU ban on Iranian oil imports from July 1, and Tehran?s response which has included threats both to immediately cease sales to EU countries, and to close the Straits of Hormuz. While global oil demand growth is weakening, concerns over supply will continue to keep oil prices high.

We believe consumer markets in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region have some of the brightest prospects globally. Their populations are young and growing rapidly, GDP per capita levels are high in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and offer strong growth prospects elsewhere, and governments within the GCC are focusing on boosting non-oilsectors, including tourism at the high end of the market.

BMI View: The better-regulated markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), South Africa and Israel will remain the most rewarding and least risky for drug makers operating in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). However, these markets are rapidly approaching maturity and are expected to grow only in the mid-to-high single digits. As pharmaceutical companies look to enter markets with higher potential, they should turn their attention first to the Gulf Levant and then North Africa, where population demographics, the regulatory framework and macroeconomic factors will facilitate growth.Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries remain the final frontier in terms of investment because the risks in these countries are higher and at present the rewards are lower. However, their appeal lies in the long term and the companies that establish their brands sooner rather than later will benefit most. Generally speaking, BMI has preferred the Southern African region over East Africa, followed in preference by West and Central Africa. However, due to slightly improved conditions in Nigeria and a downgrade to Uganda?s Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), which is the new term for BMI?s Business Environment Ratings (though the scoring methodology remains unchanged), we now regard the East and West and Central Africa as being of relatively similar attractiveness for multinational drug makers. We believe West and Central Africa has higher rewards and East Africa has fewer risks.However, Africa is not homogenous and there are exceptions within regions that stand out and deserve particular mention, such as Ghana, which we are bullish about, and Zimbabwe, about which we are less confident. BMI expects the countries that drug makers choose to enter will continue to be decided along ex-colonial lines, as language and contacts are often barriers to market entry. These barriers can be broken down by trade envoys, embassies and ambassadors that can facilitate business i

BMI's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings assess a market's attractiveness for food and drink sector investment, both in terms of the opportunities on offer but also the risks inherent in the country and sector which could prevent a company from realizing these opportunities. Notably, in spite of the enormous potential of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region, which has led to a significant influx of investment from consumer oriented companies in recent years, the region actually lags its emerging markets peers in terms of its average overall Risk/Reward Rating.