The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has maintained political and economic stability in a region fraught withturbulence. High living standards and high levels of employment contribute to a stable communityunlikely to cause upheaval such as is occurring across other Middle East and North Africa (MENA)nations. As a result, the UAE has successfully attracted foreign investment in a way that its neighbourshave not been able to do. Our GDP growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 remains at 3.3% as high oil priceshave helped the UAE bounce back from the 2009 global financial crisis.Its ties with Western nations and multinational companies, as well as its oil and natural gas resources,plus its geographic position on the Arabian Sea put the UAE in a strong strategic position. This alsoforces the UAE to play a complicated diplomatic game of balancing its relations with the West andmaintaining its credibility as a regional player.This complicated balancing act has been on full display over recent months. The UAE played a crucialrole both diplomatically and militarily in the Libyan conflict. It provided western nations with muchneededArab support for the NATO action and provided 12 jet fighter planes to the effort. The UAE hasalso played an important role in the ongoing Somali famine. Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliated militantgroup that controls much of the country, has barred most Western aid agencies from operating in largeswathes of Somalia. The group, however, has been more open to NGO?s from Arab countries, and theUAE has played an important role in getting aid into Somalia. Both of these operations have put the UAEfirmly on the side of the US and other Western nations, demonstrating the relatively positive andconstructive relationship the country has with the West.At the same time, the UAE has split from the US and other western countries on another importantregional issue ? Palestine?s bid for recognition at the UN. The UAE has supported the

The UAE is set to witness a further surge in petrochemicals capacities over the next five years as itbecomes a major supplier to the Chinese market, according to BMI?s latest UAE Petrochemicals Report.The success of Abu Dhabi?s massive Borouge complex is confirmed in Borealis? recently publishedfinancial results, which showed that the company made EUR98mn in net profits from the joint venture inQ311. The plant was therefore unaffected by the soft patch in European demand and the overall globalmarket nervousness that led to a narrowing of polyolefins margins. Borouge?s strength, compared to theperformance of European operations, underlines the growing importance of competitive Middle Easternproduction for the balance sheets of majors. Even though the UAE?s petrochemicals sector is moredependent on less competitive naphtha feedstock than ethane-fed facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, ithas continued to thrive utilising its supplies.The second phase of the Borouge complex at Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, began production in mid-2010 with a540,000tpa PE unit coming onstream in July. In Q410, an olefins conversion unit producing 752,000tpaof propylene, together with 50,000tpa of propylene delivered from Adnoc?s refinery, began supplying thetwo Borstar PP units with combined capacity of 800,000tpa. Borouge 2 will triple Borouge?s polyolefinscapacity to 2mn tpa when it becomes fully operational by mid-2011. An additional 2.5mn tpa is scheduledonline in 2013, following the completion of Borouge 3. The new capacity will be marketed mainly to theMiddle East and Asia Pacific, targeting high-end applications in the pipe and high performance packagingareas. Borouge 3 will have capacities of 1.43mn tpa PE and 960,000tpa PP supplied by a 1.5tpa ethanecracker, with US$4.6bn worth of construction contracts signed in Q210.The Chemaweyaat project will include an olefins plant, an aromatics complex and a range ofdownstream polymer and chemical units and w

BMI?s Q112 update to the UAE?s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from theTelecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and EmiratesIntegrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of September 2011. It contains ananalysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It alsocontains our growth forecast for the key sectors, which has been extended to 2016. Meanwhile, ourpenetration rates changed significantly this quarter following a revision of the UAE?s population databased on the World Bank?s statistics.According to the TRA, there were 11.262mn mobile subscribers in the UAE at the end of September2011, reflecting a penetration rate of 142.7%. The market grew by just 0.7% q-o-q in Q311, slightly downfrom 1% in the previous quarter, and 3.8% y-o-y. Growth in the UAE?s mobile market for the 12 monthsto September 2011was solely driven by second-ranked du, which recorded total net additions of 857,000subscribers during that period to offset Etisalat?s total net loss of 438,000 for the same period. It is worthmentioning that our subscriber figure for Etisalat is based on the TRA?s market data, which comply witha strict 90-day activation period for active lines. We have upgraded our mobile growth forecast thisquarter following strong net additions during 9M11. We now expect the number of mobile subscribers inthe UAE to reach 12.385mn by 2016, reflecting a penetration rate of 145.5%.The fixed-line sector recorded positive growth in Q311, albeit it at a significantly slower rate than inQ111. This suggests continued demand for fixed-line connections despite the rapid take-up of mobileservices. We factored in this trend in our previous update, therefore there is no change to our shortmediumterm growth expectations. We expect the increase in competition following the implementationof fixed network sharing and the expansion of serv

Spinneys, one of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)?s largest food retailers, continues to see a lot of room for growth inthe region as demand for organised food retailing continues to rise. In spite of the economic and political upheaval that has rocked the region in 2011, there are still plenty of opportunities for companies such as Spinneys that are already well positioned in a number of markets. Having established a strong business in the Gulf region, it is believed that Spinneys will prioritise growth in the wider MENA area, with counties such as Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon likely to be targeted.

The insurance sectors of Middle Eastern countries fall into two categories. The first is characterised by a relatively small number of oligopolists, whose positions may be formally protected by law or effectively protected by geopolitical issues (as in Israel and Iran). The second category is characterised by the large number of local players relative to the present market opportunity. Typically they are pure non-life companies, or non-life companies that derive a small portion of total income from life and healthcare products.Often they have a close association with a local banking or trading company that may assist with the procurement of business. The UAE, where local companies account for nearly 80% of the market, is a good example, as life and health insurance constituted only 16.3% of total gross premiums written - AED3.6bn (US$980mn) in 2010.The trade association for non-life, life and composite insurance companies in the UAE is the Emirates Insurance Association. As of June 2011, its membership includes 30 national companies, 26 international companies and 48 brokers. The list of international members is noteworthy because it does not just include global multinationals. Major multinationals with a presence in the UAE include MetLife ALCIO, Chartis, Generali, AXA, Friends Provident International, RSA, Tokio Marine Nichido, Zurich International Life (ZIL) and Zurich Life Insurance. The foreign members also include subsidiaries of Bimeh Iran, Adamjee Insurance (from Pakistan), State Life (Pakistan), al-Ittihad al-Watani (Lebanon), Arabia Insurance, General Insurance Corporation, LIC, QGIC, QIC, The New India Assurance and The Oriental Insurance (all India).