DescriptionThis report presents a perspective of the current situation and the future outlook of the Macro and Retail Industry in the UAE. It reviews the UAE economy, the important economic indicators with their five year forecasts, the prevailing state and the recent developments in the top industry sectors contributing to the GDP of the UAE and the SWOT analysis of the economy.This is followed by a detailed look at the retail industry with forecasts for 2011-2015. It analyzes the growth drivers, trends in the industry including consumer demand trends, retailer trends and mall owner/operator trends, their impact on the various industry participants, the challenges faced by the retail industry and finally, the projections for the industry till 2015 and its segments. The report also includes a SWOT analysis of the retail industry for a quick glance at the overall industry, the competitive landscape of the retail industry along with the recent happenings and a profile of the key industry players. The 54 page report assembles and presents all the pertinent data along with the analysis of the information in a convenient and insightful manner. Interspersed with 34 data tables, figures and charts, the report provides an easy to understand and a definitive primer for those interested in the retail industry in the UAE. Some of the key findings include:The GDP growth in the UAE has recovered after a slowdown in 2009 and is forecast to continue on its growth path Inflation to remain in low single digits leading to more incomes in the hands of the population The non-oil sector growth will be more balanced with growth spread across many sectors Retail revenues in the UAE experienced a CAGR of 9.6% during 2006-2010 The UAE retail growth story is back, but at a slower rate than the pre-2008 years UAE is emerging as one of the most sought after destinations for international retailers Emirates outside of Dubai, especi

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BMI?s Q212 update to the UAE?s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of December 2011. It contains an analysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains our growth estimates for the key sectors during our forecast period, through to 2016.The TRA?s intention to drive competition in the fixed-line sector received a major boost in March 2012 with the introduction of the carrier pre-selection service (CPS). The service allows users to choose their service provider regardless of the main access line provider. BMI sees this as major step towards full implementation of fixed network infrastructure sharing in the UAE, which has been delayed several times before. At the time of writing, local media suggested the process might eventually kick-off by mid-2012.These developments were reported after updates to our fixed-line forecast and historical data analysis. We will therefore factor in their implications for future growth in subsequent updates to our UAE telecoms market report. Our current forecast, which was upgraded this quarter following better than expected subscriber growth in Q411, envisages fixed-line subscriptions to reach 1.9mn by 2016, a penetration rate of 22.4%.The mobile sector also recorded strong growth in 2011 after market leader Etisalat broke a cycle of four consecutive quarterly subscriber losses, with net additions of 187,000 subscribers in Q411. Secondranked du continued its strong performance in Q411, with net additions of 278,000 subscribers. This brought the UAE?s total mobile subscriber base to 11.727mn at the end of December 2011, up by 4.1% qo-q from 11.262mn in the previous quarter and by 7.1% y-o-y from 10.926mn subscribers a year earlier. Based on the revision to our UAE population data in our previ

BMI View: New population data for 2011 show the size of the expatriate population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been underappreciated. Population growth has fed into a rise in the World Healthcare Organization (WHO)?s healthcare expenditure figures, which is a boon for any company that has invested in the UAE's healthcare sector. The increase has primarily been as a result of more government expenditure on healthcare. Nevertheless, we still expect the country?s pharmaceutical environment to become increasingly challenging, in light of price cuts.Headline Expenditure Projections:- Pharmaceuticals: AED5.56bn (US$1.51bn) in 2011 to AED5.65bn (US$1.54bn) in 2012; +1.6% in both local currency terms and US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q112.- Healthcare: AED45.27bn (US$12.33bn) in 2011 to AED50.83bn (US$13.85bn) in 2012; +12.3% in local currency terms and +12.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast significantly increased from Q112 due to inclusion of new historical data.- Medical devices: AED1.87bn (US$508mn) in 2011 to AED2.05bn (US$558mn) in 2012; +9.9% in local currency terms and +10.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q112.Business Environment Rating: The pharmaceutical rating for the UAE in Q212 increased by 2.77% on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, with the country now ranked second within the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region (up from fourth previously). The change is based on new population and healthcare spending data, which is seen as providing more commercial opportunities for companies in the industry and is reflected in an increased score for the industry rewards variable.Key Trends & Developments:- In January 2012, UAE-based pharmaceutical company Elis Pharmaceuticals acquired the Middle East licensing rights for US pharmaceutical company Apricus Biosciences' drug MycoVa. Elis will be responsible for the marketing of the nail fungal infection (onychomycosis) treatment in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwa

While the last months of 2011 are reported to have resembled the days of 2008, and the depths of the global financial crisis, BMI foresees modest growth in the UAE auto market throughout the rest of 2012. There are several reasons for this fluctuation. A report by Gulf News suggests that the drop in sales at the end of 2011 was connected to shaken consumer confidence due to the European debt crisis. However, a raft of special cut price deals and targeted advertising appears to have drawn consumers back to showrooms through the first quarter of 2012, especially buoyed by the Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF).We see this as indicative of our general view of sales in the UAE over 2012 ? which BMI views as 455,102. This is modest growth in relation to 2011, which saw 448,569 vehicles sold. Increase growth comes off a number of factors. Oil prices are at a recent high, and macro political factors over the course of 2012 look likely to maintain this trend ? in particular with fears over the intention of the Iranian regime regarding the Straits of Hormuz. Beyond this, the spectre of the Arab Spring still haunts the Gulf, and has encouraged larger than normal pay-outs to citizens from governments in the region. This has had a noticeable effect on disposable incomes ? a sector of spending that traditionally has gone towards purchases such as vehicles. Spending by the government in the UAE has taken the form of a package of US$1.9bn on housing loans, as well as a US$1.35bn spend on water and infrastructure projects in the Northern Emirates.BMW experienced a record sales tally in 2011 throughout the ME region, with 47% of these vehicles being sold in the UAE. The fourth quarter was one of the best ever had by the group, with nearly 5,000 vehicles being sold. This pushed the Middle East region into being the third place globally in terms of volume and represents a 9% growth for BMW in the Middle East over 2010 volumes. However, expectations of a slowdown are being headed off