BMI is below consensus in its forecast that sees the UAE?s real GDP expanding 3.3% in 2011 andaveraging 4.1% through to 2016. Nevertheless, the UAE?s status as a safe haven amid the regionalturmoil of the Arab spring is actually benefiting the economy: resultant growth and investment in thedomestic banking and tourism sectors as a consequence of Bahraini unrest is of particular note. This isgood news for the retail and tourism sub-sectors of the UAE real estate market.However, the commercial market remains plagued by huge amounts of unoccupied property and weakcredit conditions. Even with improving economic prospects and expected increased demand, the immensevolume of oversupply will continue to depress rentals. New supply was certainly limited in H111, butplenty of projects are still under way.Underlying figures from CPI Financial show that the value of cancelled and delayed construction projectsin the UAE rose 13% month-on-month to US$170bn in August 2011. The country accounted for 56% ofthe total cancelled or delayed projects in the Middle East and North Africa during the month. Theseconcerning figures no doubt contributed to the Dubai Land Department?s Q311 launch of its Real EstateDevelopment Plan, which is to give a rescue package to 100 projects with financial problems.The bursting of the UAE?s real estate bubble in 2008 has had largely negative consequences, with thegovernment having to resort to bailouts to shore up the sector, and bondholders facing losses. Certainlarge prestige projects, such as Dubailand, have stalled, although the sector as a whole is showing signs ofrecovery, with rental rate growths a sign that high oil revenues are encouraging greater demand. Retail inparticular is emerging as a strong growth area. In the long term, those companies that are most likely toflourish are those that move to income-generating assets such as shopping malls and leasing.

This is a PDF report.

This is a PDF report.

The tourism sector in the UAE looks set to record another good year in 2011, after a strong recovery in the previous year. In the period January-September 2011, Dubai hotels played host to 6.64mn guests (including UAE residents), an increase of 11% compared with the first three quarters of 2010. This is a slight moderation in growth though since Q111, when the number of guests rose a solid 14% year-on-year (y-o-y). In Abu Dhabi, during the first eight months of 2011 data show a good 13% y-o-y increase in tourists (including UAE arrivals) at hotels and hotel apartments (despite a fall in arrivals y-o-y in August), to over 1.3mn guests. Arrivals from Europe were up a marked 19% y-o-y, buoyed by a 24% increase in visitors from France, and growth of 18% and 17% in arrivals from the UK and Germany respectively. There was also a surge in arrivals from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), up by 25% y-o-y, and Asia (+23%). Of the GCC countries, substantial growth was recorded in visitors from Saudi Arabia (+56%) and Kuwait (+32%). In Sharjah, latest figures for the first nine months of 2011 show tourist arrivals (including UAE nationals) at hotels and hotel apartments reached over 1.1mn. Based on BMI estimates, this equates to a modest increase of just under 2% y-o-y.HospitalityIn 2011, there was impressive growth in the hospitality sector. Between January and September there was a 26% y-o-y increase in the number of guest nights at Dubai hotels, to about 23.7mn. The average length of stay rose noticeably, by 14% y-o-y, while occupancy levels of hotels and hotel apartments also increased favourably, to 72% and 74% respectively. Hotel and hotel apartment revenue rose a solid 19% y-o-y, to nearly AED11bn. In January-August 2011, in Abu Dhabi, total guest nights increased 25% y-oy, to over 4mn nights. Occupancy levels were up by 9% y-o-y to 67%, while the average length of stay rose by 12% to around three nights. Growth in domestic tourism was more muted, with a 6% y-o-y

BMI View Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) schemes and investments from both IOCs and NOCs underscore our bullish view of the UAE?s oil sector. The country will also remain a key player in the region?s gas market, sustaining its role as a dual importer and exporter of natural gas. The opening of the ADCOP pipeline builds redundancy into the UAE?s oil export pipeline system, in the event of conflict affecting the Straits of Hormuz.We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE?s oil and gas sector:- BMI sees proven oil reserves declining from 96.8bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to just over 91bn bbl by 2016, with gas reserves also falling from 6trn cubic metres (tcm) to around 5.8tcm over the same period.- We see oil production rising to over 3.2mn b/d by 2016 and nearly 3.5mn b/d by 2021, supported by re-development of mature fields, the deployment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and investment from international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs).- Gas production will receive a big mid-decade boost from the start-up of the Shah sour gas project. By 2016, we see output of around 66bcm, rising to 74bcm by 2021. - The UAE will continue to export modest volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) while importing pipeline gas via Dolphin from Qatar. We have not factored a volume rise for either flow into our forecasts.- The liberalisation of fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, owing to government largesse following political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011. Fuels distribution in the UAE will, therefore, continue to be a loss-making proposition. The UAE?s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country?s export revenues. Our assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices will fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creati